Sport Picks

Stadium Background

EL Nacional vs Gualaceo

Ecuador Ecuador

Serie B Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa, Quito
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
EL Nacional
33%
Draws
40%
Gualaceo
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Gualaceo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Gualaceo have won more games recently than EL Nacional.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Gualaceo taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 17%
Gualaceo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EL Nacional Gualaceo
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 5 10
Draws 6 8
Losses 20 11
Goals Scored 0.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 2 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs Gualaceo
0:0
May 2, 2026 Serie B
Gualaceo vs EL Nacional
2:0
Nov 12, 2023 Liga Pro
EL Nacional vs Gualaceo
4:2
Jun 4, 2023 Liga Pro
Gualaceo vs EL Nacional
3:4
Oct 7, 2021 Serie B
EL Nacional vs Gualaceo
4:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EL Nacional 28 / 100
Gualaceo 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EL Nacional Gualaceo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GUA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: EL Nacional scored in 58% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Gualaceo conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.

EL Nacional went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

EL Nacional VS Gualaceo
0.38 Goals Scored 0.75
2 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

EL Nacional

(Home)
24 Jul
EL Nacional
0 : 0
Gualaceo
15 Jul
Vinotinto
2 : 1
EL Nacional
08 Jul
EL Nacional
0 : 1
Cumbaya
02 Jul
Atletico FC
3 : 0
EL Nacional
11 Jun
EL Nacional
0 : 0
Dep. Santo Domingo
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Gualaceo

(Away)
24 Jul
EL Nacional
0 : 0
Gualaceo
18 Jul
Gualaceo
0 : 1
22 de Julio
11 Jul
Nueve de Octubre
0 : 0
Gualaceo
01 Jul
Vinotinto
1 : 2
Gualaceo
10 Jun
Gualaceo
1 : 0
Cumbaya
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nueve de Octubre1897220:1134
2Independiente Juniors1887320:1131
3Atletico FC18710121:1331
4CD Cuenca Juniors1886419:1830
5Vinotinto1875623:1626
6Cumbaya1858519:1623
7LDU Portoviejo1864815:2122
8San Antonio1849520:2021
9Gualaceo1867513:1119
10Dep. Santo Domingo1857613:1319
1122 de Julio1843119:239
12EL Nacional18051310:292
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Serie B (Relegation Group)