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Elana Torun vs Notec Czarnkow

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Elana Torun play Notec Czarnkow in the III Liga - Group II 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Elana Torun averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. Notec Czarnkow averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. In past meetings, Elana Torun won 2, Notec Czarnkow won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 23, 2026 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Elana Torun and 2.19 for Notec Czarnkow. This points to a Notec Czarnkow double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Elana Torun
28%
Draws
36%
Notec Czarnkow
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Notec Czarnkow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence
  • Elana Torun picked up more points recently compared to Notec Czarnkow.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 2.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Elana Torun Clean Sheet 10%
Notec Czarnkow Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elana Torun Notec Czarnkow
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.38 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.69 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 III Liga - Group II
Elana Torun vs Notec Czarnkow
0:3
Nov 8, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Torun
0:1
May 1, 2025 III Liga - Group II
Elana Torun vs Notec Czarnkow
1:1
Oct 5, 2024 III Liga - Group II
Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Torun
3:4
Apr 6, 2024 III Liga - Group II
Notec Czarnkow vs Elana Torun
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Elana Torun Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Notec Czarnkow Compare

Top Goalscorer Szulc H.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elana Torun 34 / 100
Notec Czarnkow 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elana Torun Notec Czarnkow

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Notec Czarnkow or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Elana Torun attacking → ← attacking Notec Czarnkow

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Elana Torun scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Notec Czarnkow let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Elana Torun went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Notec Czarnkow lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 44
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
3.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Zawisza34255473:2380
2Luzino34244679:3976
3Polonia Sroda Wielkopol34206867:4366
4Lipno Steszew341561347:5451
5Notec Czarnkow341471349:4649
6Lech Poznan II341471367:5449
7Elana Torun341471349:5549
8Swinoujscie341471348:5249
9Wda Swiecie341461444:6648
10Unia Swarzedz341381347:4147
11Kluczevia Stargard341371454:4346
12Blekitni Stargard341291356:5145
13Victoria Wrzesnia341331841:4642
14Pogon Szczecin II341251775:6641
15Nowe Skalmierzyce341091535:4639
16Cartusia Kartuzy341151838:5138
17Tluchowo34871937:6631
18Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal34362520:8415