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Elche vs Celta Vigo

Spain Spain

LaLiga Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Elche host Celta Vigo in the LaLiga. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Elche have averaged 1.34 scored and 1.72 conceded recently, against Celta Vigo's 1.23 scored and 1.43 conceded. Head-to-head, Elche have won 1 to Celta Vigo's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on May 3, 2026, ending 3:1. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 1.69) point toward Celta Vigo. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Elche
35%
Draws
49%
Celta Vigo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Celta Vigo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Elche at 1.34 per game, Celta Vigo at 1.23.
  • Model gives Celta Vigo a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Regular LaLiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Celta Vigo have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Elche Clean Sheet 13%
Celta Vigo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elche Celta Vigo
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 9 10
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.34 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.72 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 LaLiga
Celta Vigo vs Elche
3:1
Sep 28, 2025 LaLiga
Elche vs Celta Vigo
2:1
Apr 26, 2023 LaLiga
Celta Vigo vs Elche
1:0
Jan 6, 2023 LaLiga
Elche vs Celta Vigo
0:1
May 15, 2022 LaLiga
Celta Vigo vs Elche
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elche 27 / 100
Celta Vigo 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elche Celta Vigo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Celta Vigo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Elche's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Celta Vigo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Elche stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Elche VS Celta Vigo
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Elche

(Home)
15 Sept
Elche
2 : 3
Real Madrid
12 Sept
Ath Bilbao
1 : 1
Elche
07 Sept
Elche
2 : 3
Real Sociedad
28 Aug
Racing Santander
3 : 2
Elche
23 Aug
Elche
0 : 5
Barcelona
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Celta Vigo

(Away)
16 Sept
Omonia
1 : 0
Celta Vigo
13 Sept
Celta Vigo
1 : 1
Malaga
07 Sept
Getafe
1 : 1
Celta Vigo
03 Sept
Real Sociedad
0 : 0
Celta Vigo
30 Aug
Celta Vigo
0 : 2
Ath Bilbao
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barcelona 6 6 0 0 28:6 18
2 Real Madrid 6 5 0 1 17:6 15
3 Betis 6 5 0 1 8:6 15
4 Atl. Madrid 6 4 1 1 14:6 13
5 Sevilla 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
6 Alaves 6 3 1 2 11:6 10
7 Dep. A Coruna 6 2 3 1 9:7 9
8 Espanyol 6 2 1 3 9:7 7
9 Ath Bilbao 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Racing Santander 6 2 1 3 11:16 7
11 Rayo Vallecano 6 2 1 3 10:15 7
12 Real Sociedad 6 2 1 3 6:11 7
13 Osasuna 6 2 1 3 5:12 7
14 Villarreal 6 1 2 3 10:11 5
15 Levante 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
16 Getafe 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
17 Celta Vigo 6 0 4 2 3:6 4
18 Valencia 6 1 1 4 2:10 4
19 Malaga 6 0 3 3 3:11 3
20 Elche 6 0 2 4 8:16 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)