Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Elfsborg vs Kalmar

Sweden Sweden

Allsvenskan Borås Arena, Borås
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Soderback M.
51' Event
Kamara M.
Assist: Ostman L.
57'
Sub
Stolt M. In: Dall E.
Out: Stolt M.

AI Match Summary

The Allsvenskan game between Elfsborg and Kalmar finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Elfsborg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Elfsborg
20%
Draws
23%
Kalmar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Elfsborg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Kalmar haven't matched Elfsborg's recent run of results.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Elfsborg taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Elfsborg Clean Sheet 18%
Kalmar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elfsborg Kalmar
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 10
Draws 8 6
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.62 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Allsvenskan
Elfsborg vs Kalmar
1:0
Apr 27, 2026 Allsvenskan
Kalmar vs Elfsborg
2:1
Sep 29, 2024 Allsvenskan
Kalmar vs Elfsborg
1:3
Apr 22, 2024 Allsvenskan
Elfsborg vs Kalmar
1:2
Sep 17, 2023 Allsvenskan
Elfsborg vs Kalmar
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Elfsborg Compare

Top Goalscorer Kamara M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Kalmar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elfsborg 40 / 100
Kalmar 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elfsborg Kalmar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Elfsborg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Elfsborg found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).

Kalmar has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Elfsborg has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Elfsborg VS Kalmar
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Elfsborg

(Home)
13 Sept
Elfsborg
1 : 0
Kalmar
06 Sept
Brommapojkarna
2 : 1
Elfsborg
29 Aug
Elfsborg
2 : 0
Degerfors
23 Aug
IFK Goteborg
1 : 1
Elfsborg
18 Aug
Frolunda
0 : 4
Elfsborg
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Kalmar

(Away)
13 Sept
Elfsborg
1 : 0
Kalmar
07 Sept
Kalmar
0 : 1
Djurgarden
29 Aug
Halmstad
1 : 0
Kalmar
23 Aug
Vasteras SK
0 : 0
Kalmar
19 Aug
Angelholm
0 : 7
Kalmar
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sirius 21 15 3 3 50:27 48
2 Djurgarden 21 13 2 6 46:19 41
3 Hammarby 21 12 4 5 48:20 40
4 Elfsborg 21 9 7 5 29:21 34
5 Malmo FF 21 10 3 8 37:31 33
6 Hacken 21 8 9 4 34:30 33
7 AIK 21 9 6 6 30:32 33
8 Vasteras SK 21 9 5 7 32:35 32
9 IFK Goteborg 21 8 5 8 30:41 29
10 GAIS 21 7 6 8 25:20 27
11 Brommapojkarna 21 7 6 8 30:35 27
12 Mjallby 21 5 7 9 27:35 22
13 Kalmar 21 5 4 12 21:31 19
14 Degerfors 21 5 4 12 19:33 19
15 Orgryte 21 3 6 12 24:47 15
16 Halmstad 21 2 5 14 14:39 11
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Allsvenskan (Relegation)
Relegation - Superettan 2027 (Main)