Sport Picks
Elgoibar vs Aurrera de Vitoria
Spain
Tercera Division - Group 4 2012/2013 
AI Match Summary
The Tercera Division - Group 4 2012/2013 game between Elgoibar and Aurrera de Vitoria finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Elgoibar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
9%
30%
61%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aurrera de Vitoria
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
61%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Aurrera de Vitoria come out ahead of Elgoibar on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Aurrera de Vitoria's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Tercera Division - Group 4 2012/2013 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Elgoibar Clean Sheet 18%
Aurrera de Vitoria Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Elgoibar | Aurrera de Vitoria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 14 |
| Draws | 11 | 5 |
| Losses | 12 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.7 | 1.28 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.97 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 2, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Elgoibar vs Aurrera de Vitoria
2:1
Sep 15, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Elgoibar
0:0
Feb 12, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Elgoibar
2:0
Oct 2, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Elgoibar vs Aurrera de Vitoria
2:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Elgoibar 10 / 100
Aurrera de Vitoria 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Elgoibar Aurrera de Vitoria
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aurrera de Vitoria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Aurrera de Vitoria has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 1.75 goals.
Elgoibar found the back of the net in 40% of recent matches (30 games).
Elgoibar went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
- VS Aurrera de Vitoria
0 Goals Scored 1.63
0 Goals Conceded 0.75
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Elgoibar
(Home) 15 Jul
Elgoibar
0 : 5 Real Sociedad
10 May
Zamudio
0 : 0 Elgoibar
03 May
Elgoibar
0 : 1 Bermeo
26 Apr
Beasain
2 : 1 Elgoibar
17 Apr
Elgoibar
0 : 0 Santutxu FC
Page 1 of 6
15 Jul
Elgoibar
0 : 5 Real Sociedad
03 May
Elgoibar
0 : 1 Bermeo
17 Apr
Elgoibar
0 : 0 Santutxu FC
05 Apr
Elgoibar
0 : 0 Leioa
15 Mar
Elgoibar
2 : 1 Amurrio Club
Page 1 of 4
Aurrera de Vitoria
(Away) 19 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1 Alaves C
12 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
1 : 1 Touring KE
05 Sept
Amurrio Club
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
29 Aug
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 0 Amorebieta
09 May
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1 SD Deusto
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Amurrio Club
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
03 May
Portugalete
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
18 Apr
Derio
1 : 1 Aurrera de Vitoria
01 Apr
Alaves C
1 : 1 Aurrera de Vitoria
15 Mar
Eibar C
0 : 1 Aurrera de Vitoria
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Laudio | 38 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 65:29 | 81 |
| 2 | Arenas Getxo | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 54:24 | 78 |
| 3 | Portugalete | 38 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 75:38 | 73 |
| 4 | Leioa | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 43:28 | 71 |
| 5 | Gernika Club | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 58:31 | 69 |
| 6 | Zalla UC | 38 | 18 | 13 | 7 | 51:36 | 67 |
| 7 | Bermeo | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 52:47 | 52 |
| 8 | SCD Durango | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 39:44 | 48 |
| 9 | Zamudio | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 41:52 | 47 |
| 10 | Beasain | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 38:41 | 47 |
| 11 | Lagun Onak | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 36:41 | 46 |
| 12 | Basconia | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 49:59 | 45 |
| 13 | Pasaia | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 43:64 | 43 |
| 14 | Alaves B | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 40:48 | 43 |
| 15 | Elgoibar | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 35:42 | 43 |
| 16 | Santutxu FC | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 39:55 | 41 |
| 17 | Balmaseda | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 49:57 | 40 |
| 18 | Deportivo Getxo | 38 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 34:49 | 39 |
| 19 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 38 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 27:57 | 29 |
| 20 | Anaitasuna FT | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 35:61 | 25 |
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2012/2013 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2012/2013 (Main)
