Sport Picks
Eltham Redbacks vs North Geelong Warriors Prediction & H2H Stats
Australia
Victoria Premier League 
Match Events
12'
12'
Romas B.
45'
45'
Edwards N.
55'
55'
Nepomuceno G.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
The Victoria Premier League game between Eltham Redbacks and North Geelong Warriors finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Eltham Redbacks.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Eltham Redbacks
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Eltham Redbacks come out ahead of North Geelong Warriors on wins alone.
- Model gives Eltham Redbacks a 51% chance of winning this.
- Regular Victoria Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Eltham Redbacks Clean Sheet 20%
North Geelong Warriors Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Eltham Redbacks | North Geelong Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 10 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 2.15 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.59 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.31 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 11, 2026 Victoria Premier League
Eltham Redbacks vs North Geelong Warriors
3:1
Mar 28, 2026 Victoria Premier League
North Geelong Warriors vs Eltham Redbacks
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Eltham Redbacks Compare
Top Goalscorer Romas B.
1 Goals Assists Leader Edwards N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16
North Geelong Warriors Compare
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Eltham Redbacks 85 / 100
North Geelong Warriors 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Eltham Redbacks North Geelong Warriors
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Eltham Redbacks Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Eltham Redbacks's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 27 recent games.
North Geelong Warriors's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.
H2H data points to 4.50 goals as a typical output.
Eltham Redbacks went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Eltham Redbacks VS North Geelong Warriors
2.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Eltham Redbacks
(Home) 11 Sept
Melbourne Victory U21
2 : 0 Eltham Redbacks
30 Aug
Eltham Redbacks
2 : 2 Melbourne Knights
22 Aug
Port Melbourne Sharks
0 : 2 Eltham Redbacks
14 Aug
Eltham Redbacks
5 : 0 Manningham United Blues
31 Jul
Northcote City
1 : 0 Eltham Redbacks
Page 1 of 6
30 Aug
Eltham Redbacks
2 : 2 Melbourne Knights
14 Aug
Eltham Redbacks
5 : 0 Manningham United Blues
24 Jul
Eltham Redbacks
0 : 2 Melbourne Srbija
11 Jul
Eltham Redbacks
3 : 1 North Geelong Warriors
19 Jun
Eltham Redbacks
3 : 4 Western United U21
Page 1 of 3
North Geelong Warriors
(Away) 30 Aug
Langwarrin
1 : 1 North Geelong Warriors
22 Aug
North Geelong Warriors
3 : 0 Western United U21
15 Aug
Brunswick City
4 : 0 North Geelong Warriors
08 Aug
Melbourne Srbija
1 : 0 North Geelong Warriors
01 Aug
North Geelong Warriors
0 : 4 Bulleen
Page 1 of 6
30 Aug
Langwarrin
1 : 1 North Geelong Warriors
15 Aug
Brunswick City
4 : 0 North Geelong Warriors
08 Aug
Melbourne Srbija
1 : 0 North Geelong Warriors
25 Jul
Brunswick Juventus
3 : 0 North Geelong Warriors
11 Jul
Eltham Redbacks
3 : 1 North Geelong Warriors
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Knights | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 43:19 | 49 |
| 2 | Brunswick Juventus | 24 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 42:26 | 47 |
| 3 | Melbourne Victory U21 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 55:32 | 43 |
| 4 | Northcote City | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 38:27 | 43 |
| 5 | Bulleen | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 44:30 | 42 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 53:37 | 36 |
| 7 | Melbourne Srbija | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 27:25 | 36 |
| 8 | Manningham United Blues | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 32:48 | 30 |
| 9 | North Geelong Warriors | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 32:49 | 29 |
| 10 | Brunswick City | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 40:49 | 27 |
| 11 | Langwarrin | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 40:52 | 24 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 29:38 | 20 |
| 13 | Port Melbourne Sharks | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 12:55 | 16 |
| 14 | Western United U21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - NPL Victoria (Main)
Promotion - Victoria Premier League (Promotion - Play Offs)
