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Elva vs Kalju U21

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Nike Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Elva play Kalju U21 in the Esiliiga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Elva averaged 1.81 goals scored and 1.81 conceded. Kalju U21 averaged 1.69 goals scored and 2.31 conceded. In past meetings, Elva won 1, Kalju U21 won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jul 5, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.00 for Elva and 1.75 for Kalju U21. This points to a Elva double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Elva
21%
Draws
38%
Kalju U21
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Elva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Elva picked up more points recently compared to Kalju U21.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.00 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 75%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 75%
Over 3.5 Goals 45%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%
Elva Clean Sheet 12%
Kalju U21 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elva Kalju U21
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 13 10
Draws 3 5
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.81 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.81 2.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Esiliiga
Kalju U21 vs Elva
2:2
May 2, 2026 Esiliiga
Elva vs Kalju U21
2:4
Oct 4, 2025 Esiliiga
Elva vs Kalju U21
0:1
Aug 30, 2025 Esiliiga
Kalju U21 vs Elva
1:1
May 11, 2025 Esiliiga
Elva vs Kalju U21
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Elva Compare

Top Goalscorer Paju A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mbuthia J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Kalju U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Jabir I.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Sarapuu K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elva 39 / 100
Kalju U21 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elva Kalju U21

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Elva or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.7%
1.45
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Elva attacking → ← attacking Kalju U21

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Elva scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Kalju U21 let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Elva went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Kalju U21 lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 35
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tartu JK Welco18133254:2342
2Viimsi JK1794428:1431
3Flora Tallinn U211693442:3130
4Elva1873831:3224
5Tallinna Kalev1864835:3622
6Levadia U2118701134:3321
7Maardu Linnameeskond1755723:3620
8Nomme Utd U211754834:4119
9Kalju U211753928:4218
10FC Tallinn1845925:4617