Sport Picks

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Elva vs Tallinna Kalev

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Nike Arena, Elva
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Reilson J.
33' Event
Gusarov A.
Assist: Mihhailov V.
64' Event
Kleinsmith J.
Assist: Jaagant R.

AI Match Summary

Elva in this Esiliiga matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Elva.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Elva
40%
Draws
29%
Tallinna Kalev
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Elva lately — more wins on the board than Tallinna Kalev.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Esiliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 85%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 85%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Elva Clean Sheet 12%
Tallinna Kalev Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Elva Tallinna Kalev
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 12
Draws 3 4
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 2 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.63 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Esiliiga
Elva vs Tallinna Kalev
3:1
Apr 9, 2026 Esiliiga
Tallinna Kalev vs Elva
2:1
Oct 30, 2025 Estonian Cup
Elva vs Tallinna Kalev
1:2
Jan 29, 2023 Club Friendly
Elva vs Tallinna Kalev
0:0
Oct 28, 2021 Esiliiga
Tallinna Kalev vs Elva
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Elva Compare

Top Goalscorer Reilson J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kleinsmith J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Tallinna Kalev Compare

Top Goalscorer Gusarov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Elva 30 / 100
Tallinna Kalev 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Elva Tallinna Kalev

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Elva scored in 84% of their last 32 games.

Tallinna Kalev let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Elva remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Elva VS Tallinna Kalev
2 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Elva

(Home)
22 Jul
Laanemaa Haapsalu
0 : 6
Elva
16 Jul
Viimsi JK
1 : 3
Elva
11 Jul
FC Tallinn
0 : 3
Elva
05 Jul
Kalju U21
2 : 2
Elva
30 Jun
Jarva-Jaani
0 : 4
Elva
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Tallinna Kalev

(Away)
23 Jul
Tammeka Tartu U19
0 : 8
Tallinna Kalev
18 Jul
Tallinna Kalev
3 : 1
Nomme Utd U21
11 Jul
Levadia U21
3 : 2
Tallinna Kalev
03 Jul
Tallinna Kalev
3 : 3
Maardu Linnameeskond
21 Jun
Tallinna Kalev
5 : 1
Kalju U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tartu JK Welco20143362:2645
2Viimsi JK1995531:1932
3Flora Tallinn U211994646:3831
4Elva2093837:3330
5Levadia U2120901139:3527
6Maardu Linnameeskond2075830:4726
7Tallinna Kalev2074940:4025
8FC Tallinn20551027:4920
9Nomme Utd U211955936:4520
10Kalju U2119541030:4619
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)