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EM Mahdia vs Bousalem Prediction & H2H Stats

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue 2 2025/2026
EM Mahdia Logo

EM Mahdia

1 - 0
FT
Bousalem Logo

Bousalem

Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Ibrahim M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

EM Mahdia in this Ligue 2 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored EM Mahdia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
EM Mahdia
20%
Draws
29%
Bousalem
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: EM Mahdia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • EM Mahdia have won more games recently than Bousalem.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on EM Mahdia taking it.
  • Regular Ligue 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
EM Mahdia Clean Sheet 68%
Bousalem Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric EM Mahdia Bousalem
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 7
Draws 9 7
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 0.97 0.72
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Ligue 2
EM Mahdia vs Bousalem
1:0
Oct 18, 2025 Ligue 2
Bousalem vs EM Mahdia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

EM Mahdia Compare

Top Goalscorer Ibrahim M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Bousalem Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

EM Mahdia 86 / 100
Bousalem 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
EM Mahdia Bousalem

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EM Mahdia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bousalem has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: EM Mahdia stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

EM Mahdia found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

EM Mahdia VS Bousalem
0.13 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
38% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

EM Mahdia

(Home)
03 Oct
EM Mahdia
2 : 1
Kerkennah
26 Sept
Sporting Ben Arous
1 : 2
EM Mahdia
10 Sept
EM Mahdia
3 : 0
Ksour Essef
11 May
EM Mahdia
1 : 3
Kerkennah
01 May
Menzel Bourguiba
1 : 0
EM Mahdia
Page 1 of 6

Bousalem

(Away)
11 May
Bousalem
2 : 2
Megrine
01 May
Chebba
5 : 1
Bousalem
27 Apr
Bousalem
1 : 1
AS Agareb
18 Apr
Sfax Railways
1 : 0
Bousalem
13 Apr
Bousalem
1 : 0
Msaken
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hamam-Sousse 26 15 6 5 40:19 51
2 Hammam-Lif 26 15 6 5 36:14 51
3 US Tataouine 26 15 6 5 34:16 51
4 Sfax Railways 26 13 7 6 35:26 46
5 Sporting Ben Arous 26 8 10 8 30:19 34
6 Kerkennah 26 8 10 8 27:27 34
7 Chebba 26 8 9 9 33:37 33
8 Msaken 26 7 10 9 23:28 31
9 BS Bouhajla 26 7 9 10 21:23 30
10 Megrine 26 7 9 10 25:35 30
11 EM Mahdia 26 6 10 10 18:25 28
12 AS Agareb 26 7 7 12 22:33 28
13 Bousalem 26 6 7 13 19:34 25
14 Menzel Bourguiba 26 3 8 15 15:42 17
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PS Sakiet Eddaier 26 16 8 2 54:15 56
2 Stade Gabesien 26 15 8 3 43:16 53
3 Kasserine 26 14 5 7 31:18 47
4 Jendouba Sport 26 9 11 6 34:24 38
5 Korba 26 9 10 7 21:20 37
6 Bouchamma 26 9 8 9 35:30 35
7 Gafsa 26 9 7 10 28:31 34
8 Ariana 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ksour Essef 26 9 5 12 40:34 32
10 Redeyef 26 8 8 10 27:39 32
11 Kalaa 26 9 3 14 28:44 30
12 Moknine 26 7 8 11 29:36 29
13 Djelma 26 6 8 12 16:33 26
14 Sidi Bouzid 26 3 5 18 17:57 14
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)