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Emelec vs Guayaquil City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil
Emelec Logo

Emelec

Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
09:00 PM
Guayaquil City Logo

Guayaquil City

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Emelec host Guayaquil City in the Liga Pro. This one's hard to separate. Emelec have averaged 0.83 scored and 1.27 conceded recently, against Guayaquil City's 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded. Head-to-head, Emelec have won 1 to Guayaquil City's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Oct 10, 2026, ending 3:2. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.38, favoring Guayaquil City. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Emelec
20%
Draws
51%
Guayaquil City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Guayaquil City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Guayaquil City have won more games recently than Emelec.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Emelec Clean Sheet 17%
Guayaquil City Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Emelec Guayaquil City
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 8 8
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 0.83 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2026 Liga Pro
Guayaquil City vs Emelec
3:2
Aug 10, 2026 Liga Pro
Guayaquil City vs Emelec
0:0
Apr 18, 2026 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Guayaquil City
1:3
Oct 22, 2025 Copa Ecuador
Guayaquil City vs Emelec
0:1
Nov 4, 2023 Liga Pro
Guayaquil City vs Emelec
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Emelec 36 / 100
Guayaquil City 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Emelec Guayaquil City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guayaquil City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Emelec found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Guayaquil City conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Emelec went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Emelec VS Guayaquil City
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Emelec

(Home)
10 Oct
Guayaquil City
3 : 2
Emelec
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Macara
1 : 0
Emelec
08 Sept
Emelec
1 : 0
Manta
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
Page 1 of 6

Guayaquil City

(Away)
10 Oct
Guayaquil City
3 : 2
Emelec
19 Sept
Guayaquil City
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
12 Sept
Guayaquil City
3 : 1
Mushuc Runa
08 Sept
Orense
4 : 3
Guayaquil City
02 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
1 : 0
Guayaquil City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Libertad 32 13 8 11 38:35 47
8 Guayaquil City 32 11 10 11 37:39 43
9 Leones del Norte 32 10 10 12 32:36 40
10 Emelec 32 10 9 13 28:39 39
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana 2027 (Qualification)