Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Emelec vs Libertad

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil
Emelec Logo

Emelec

1 - 2
FT
Libertad Logo

Libertad

Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Quinonez O.
20'
Herrera O.
23'
Caicedo B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Emelec and Libertad finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Libertad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Emelec
20%
Draws
40%
Libertad
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Libertad carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Emelec Clean Sheet 17%
Libertad Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Emelec Libertad
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 0.83 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Libertad
1:2
Sep 4, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Emelec
1:1
May 10, 2026 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Libertad
1:1
Aug 3, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs Emelec
1:2
Apr 12, 2025 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Libertad
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Emelec Compare

Top Goalscorer Saya R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Libertad Compare

Top Goalscorer Bravo J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Caicedo B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Emelec 36 / 100
Libertad 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Emelec Libertad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Libertad Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Emelec scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Libertad's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Emelec stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Emelec VS Libertad
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Emelec

(Home)
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Macara
1 : 0
Emelec
08 Sept
Emelec
1 : 0
Manta
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Emelec
2 : 1
Leones del Norte
Page 1 of 6

Libertad

(Away)
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3
Independiente del Valle
07 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 1
Libertad
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Aucas
1 : 0
Libertad
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Libertad 31 12 8 11 35:35 44
8 Leones del Norte 31 10 10 11 32:33 40
9 Guayaquil City 31 10 10 11 34:37 40
10 Emelec 31 10 9 12 26:36 39
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