Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Empoli vs Cesena

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Shpendi C.
Assist: Cerri A.
41'
Cerri A.
46'
Sub
Ignacchiti L. In: Saporiti E.
Out: Ignacchiti L.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Empoli
33%
Draws
40%
Cesena
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Cesena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Cesena haven't matched Empoli's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Cesena's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Serie B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Empoli Clean Sheet 20%
Cesena Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Empoli Cesena
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 7
Draws 9 8
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.13 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Serie B
Empoli vs Cesena
1:1
Jan 10, 2026 Serie B
Cesena vs Empoli
0:1
Apr 17, 2018 Serie B
Cesena vs Empoli
2:3
Nov 18, 2017 Serie B
Empoli vs Cesena
5:3
Nov 29, 2016 Coppa Italia
Empoli vs Cesena
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Empoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Fila D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Cesena Compare

Top Goalscorer Shpendi C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Empoli 28 / 100
Cesena 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Empoli Cesena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CES Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Empoli found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Cesena has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Empoli stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Empoli VS Cesena
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Empoli

(Home)
25 Jul
Empoli
1 : 0
Entella
08 May
Monza
2 : 2
Empoli
01 May
Empoli
1 : 0
Avellino
25 Apr
Venezia
2 : 0
Empoli
19 Apr
Empoli
1 : 1
Entella
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Cesena

(Away)
25 Jul
Cesena
1 : 0
Carpi
21 Jul
Cesena
5 : 0
SSD Sampierana
08 May
Cesena
3 : 4
Padova
01 May
Carrarese
0 : 0
Cesena
25 Apr
Cesena
0 : 0
Sampdoria
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Venezia382410477:3182
2Frosinone382312376:3481
3Monza382210661:3276
4Palermo382012661:3372
5Catanzaro381514962:5159
6Modena3815101349:3655
7Juve Stabia381118944:4551
8Avellino3813101543:5549
9Mantova381371845:5746
10Padova3812101639:4946
11Cesena3812101645:5646
12Carrarese3810141447:5244
13Sampdoria3811111635:4844
14Entella3810121636:5142
15Empoli389141547:5441
16Sudtirol388171338:4841
17Bari3810101838:6040
18Reggiana389101936:5637
19Spezia388111943:5935
20Pescara387141751:6635
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)