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Empoli vs Palermo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie B Stadio Carlo Castellani, Empoli
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Bandinelli F. In: Deli L.
Out: Bandinelli F.
46'
Sub
Romagnoli S. In: Zedadka K.
Out: Romagnoli S.
50' Event
Saporiti E.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Empoli and Palermo finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Palermo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Empoli
15%
Draws
58%
Palermo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Palermo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Palermo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Palermo's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Empoli Clean Sheet 14%
Palermo Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Empoli Palermo
Matches Played 27 32
Wins 5 19
Draws 10 7
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.07 2.09
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2026 Serie B
Empoli vs Palermo
2:4
Feb 7, 2026 Serie B
Palermo vs Empoli
3:2
Dec 7, 2025 Serie B
Empoli vs Palermo
1:3
Feb 2, 2018 Serie B
Empoli vs Palermo
4:0
Sep 9, 2017 Serie B
Palermo vs Empoli
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Empoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Popov B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Palermo Compare

Top Goalscorer Pohjanpalo J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Palumbo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Empoli 11 / 100
Palermo 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Empoli Palermo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Palermo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:8
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Empoli scored in 78% of their last 27 games.

Palermo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 32 matches.

Recent resilience: Empoli stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Empoli VS Palermo
0.75 Goals Scored 2.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Empoli

(Home)
20 Sept
Modena
2 : 1
Empoli
11 Sept
Empoli
0 : 1
Arezzo
05 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Empoli
30 Aug
Mantova
3 : 1
Empoli
22 Aug
Empoli
1 : 0
Cremonese
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Palermo

(Away)
19 Sept
Palermo
2 : 1
Padova
13 Sept
Avellino
1 : 1
Palermo
07 Sept
Palermo
3 : 1
Sampdoria
03 Sept
Palermo
5 : 2
Mantova
30 Aug
Arezzo
2 : 3
Palermo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palermo 5 4 1 0 10:5 13
2 Sudtirol 5 3 2 0 9:3 11
3 Mantova 5 3 2 0 10:5 11
4 Ascoli 5 3 1 1 7:4 10
5 Avellino 6 3 1 2 11:7 10
6 Modena 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
7 Padova 5 2 1 2 5:6 7
8 Benevento 5 2 1 2 6:5 7
9 Verona 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
10 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7:6 7
11 Pisa 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
12 Arezzo 5 2 0 3 6:13 6
13 Empoli 5 2 0 3 4:6 6
14 Entella 5 1 2 2 7:6 5
15 Cremonese 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
16 Vicenza 5 1 2 2 7:10 5
17 Sampdoria 6 1 1 4 6:13 4
18 Catanzaro 5 1 0 4 5:9 3
19 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4:7 1
20 Carrarese 5 0 1 4 2:6 1
Promotion - Serie A 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B (Play Out)