Sport Picks

Kazakhstan

First Division 2007

Ertis Pavlodar 2

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Energetik Pavlodar play Ertis Pavlodar 2 in the First Division 2007. It looks like a close match. Recently, Energetik Pavlodar averaged 2.76 goals scored and 0.45 conceded. Ertis Pavlodar 2 averaged 2.11 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. In past meetings, Energetik Pavlodar won 4, Ertis Pavlodar 2 won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 11, 2007 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.00 for Energetik Pavlodar and 1.06 for Ertis Pavlodar 2. This points to a Energetik Pavlodar double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%

Energetik Pavlodar

15%

Draws

31%

Ertis Pavlodar 2

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Energetik Pavlodar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence

Energetik Pavlodar picked up more points recently compared to Ertis Pavlodar 2.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.00 vs 1.06 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 84%

Over 2.5 Goals 70%

Over 3.5 Goals 42%

Over 4.5 Goals 21%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%

Energetik Pavlodar Clean Sheet 22%

Ertis Pavlodar 2 Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 76%

Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Energetik Pavlodar	Ertis Pavlodar 2
Matches Played	38	38
Wins	32	20
Draws	3	4
Losses	3	14
Goals Scored	2.76	2.11
Goals Conceded	0.45	1.34
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.50	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 11, 2007 First League

Energetik Pavlodar vs Ertis Pavlodar 2

Possession: 42% - 55% Cards: 4 - 3

4:0

Jul 14, 2007 First League

Ertis Pavlodar 2 vs Energetik Pavlodar

Possession: 55% - 55% Cards: 2 - 0

1:2

Nov 1, 2005 First League

Energetik Pavlodar vs Ertis Pavlodar 2

Possession: 53% - 41% Cards: 1 - 1

7:1

May 6, 2005 First League

Ertis Pavlodar 2 vs Energetik Pavlodar

Possession: 58% - 60% Cards: 1 - 2

1:5

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Energetik Pavlodar 53 / 100

Ertis Pavlodar 2 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Energetik Pavlodar Ertis Pavlodar 2

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Energetik Pavlodar Win (1)

Secondary Pick Energetik Pavlodar & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.2%

2.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.2%

1.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Energetik Pavlodar attacking → ← attacking Ertis Pavlodar 2

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Energetik Pavlodar scored in 92% of their last 38 games.

Ertis Pavlodar 2 let in goals in 71% of their last 38 matches.

Games between these two average 5.25 goals.

Energetik Pavlodar went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Ertis Pavlodar 2 lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

99 Points in last 5 64

2.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

0.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Megasport Almaty	22	21	1	0	89:10	64
2	Akzhayik Uralsk	22	18	2	2	57:14	56
3	Kaspij Aktau	22	13	4	5	46:23	43
4	Aktobe 2	22	11	4	7	38:32	37
5	Zhetysu Taldykorgan 2	22	8	5	9	32:46	29
6	Gornyak Khromtay	22	7	6	9	31:39	27
7	Ordabasy 2	22	7	2	13	38:58	23
8	Cesna Almaty	22	6	5	11	33:30	23
9	Kaisar Kyzylorda 2	22	6	5	11	25:38	23
10	Zhambyl Taraz	22	4	6	12	22:38	18
11	Zhastar Uralsk	22	5	1	16	21:70	16
12	Munaily Atyrau	22	4	3	15	27:61	15

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Energetik Pavlodar	26	24	0	2	62:10	72
2	Kazakhmys	26	22	3	1	67:14	69
3	Aksu	26	18	4	4	65:25	58
4	Avangard Petropavlovsk	26	13	5	8	35:34	44
5	Zhetysu-Sunkar Taldykorgan	26	12	3	11	47:39	39
6	Ertis Pavlodar 2	26	12	2	12	50:42	38
7	Asbest Zitikara	26	10	5	11	34:42	35
8	Shakhter Karagandy 2	26	9	5	12	30:33	32
9	Spartak Semey	26	7	8	11	29:49	29
10	Shakhter Yunost	26	6	6	14	25:38	24
11	Tobol 2	26	5	8	13	32:49	23
12	Vostok Oskemen 2	26	5	5	16	25:61	20
13	Rakhat Astana	26	4	6	16	25:56	18
14	Batyr Ekibastuz	26	0	10	16	8:42	10