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Entebbe UPPC vs Mbarara City

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 Gaddafi Arena, Jinja
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Match Events

43' Event
Kigozi A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Entebbe UPPC and Mbarara City finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Entebbe UPPC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Entebbe UPPC
30%
Draws
23%
Mbarara City
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Entebbe UPPC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Entebbe UPPC come out ahead of Mbarara City on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Entebbe UPPC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Entebbe UPPC Clean Sheet 68%
Mbarara City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Entebbe UPPC Mbarara City
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 14 6
Draws 9 9
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 0.94 0.76
Goals Conceded 0.65 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Premier League
Mbarara City vs Entebbe UPPC
0:0
Feb 17, 2026 Premier League
Entebbe UPPC vs Mbarara City
1:0
Dec 3, 2025 Premier League
Mbarara City vs Entebbe UPPC
1:1
Mar 13, 2024 Premier League
Mbarara City vs Entebbe UPPC
5:0
Nov 11, 2023 Premier League
Entebbe UPPC vs Mbarara City
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Entebbe UPPC Compare

Top Goalscorer Kigozi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Mbarara City Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Entebbe UPPC 95 / 100
Mbarara City 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Entebbe UPPC Mbarara City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Entebbe UPPC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbarara City has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Entebbe UPPC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Entebbe UPPC's goal record stands at 55% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Entebbe UPPC VS Mbarara City
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Entebbe UPPC

(Home)
16 Sept
Mbarara City
0 : 0
Entebbe UPPC
09 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
0 : 1
Lugazi
01 Sept
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 1
UPDF FC
28 Aug
Vipers
0 : 1
Entebbe UPPC
23 May
Entebbe UPPC
4 : 0
BUL
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Mbarara City

(Away)
16 Sept
Mbarara City
0 : 0
Entebbe UPPC
11 Sept
Mbarara City
0 : 0
NEC FC
29 Aug
Police
1 : 0
Mbarara City
23 May
Kampala City
4 : 1
Mbarara City
19 May
Mbarara City
2 : 0
Buhimba
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League (Main)