Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Envigado vs Cartagena

Colombia Colombia

Primera B Estadio Polideportivo Sur, Envigado
Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Solarte Espana J. A.
14'
Sub
Rodriguez J. In: Guevara L.
Out: Rodriguez J.
14' Event
Acuna S.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-0. This leg finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Envigado
35%
Draws
45%
Cartagena
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Cartagena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Cartagena average 1.5 goals a game right now, well clear of Envigado's 1.21.
  • 45% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Envigado Clean Sheet 16%
Cartagena Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Envigado Cartagena
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 8 9
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.21 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 22, 2026 Primera B
Cartagena vs Envigado
0:0
May 29, 2026 Primera B
Envigado vs Cartagena
1:1
May 26, 2026 Primera B
Cartagena vs Envigado
2:3
Mar 16, 2026 Primera B
Envigado vs Cartagena
1:1
Aug 30, 2024 Copa Colombia
Cartagena vs Envigado
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Envigado Compare

Top Goalscorer Acuna S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Cartagena Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Envigado 36 / 100
Cartagena 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Envigado Cartagena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Cartagena Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Envigado's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Cartagena conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Recent resilience: Envigado stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Envigado VS Cartagena
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Envigado

(Home)
22 Sept
Cartagena
0 : 0
Envigado
12 Sept
Envigado
1 : 1
Leones
06 Sept
Boca Juniors de Cali
2 : 2
Envigado
01 Sept
Envigado
0 : 1
Union Magdalena
23 Aug
Quindio
1 : 0
Envigado
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Cartagena

(Away)
22 Sept
Cartagena
0 : 0
Envigado
12 Sept
Inter Palmira
2 : 1
Cartagena
05 Sept
Orsomarso
0 : 1
Cartagena
29 Aug
Cartagena
0 : 3
Tigres Futbol Club
24 Aug
Leones
1 : 6
Cartagena
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Cartagena 3
Envigado 4