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Erbil vs Al Karkh Prediction & H2H Stats

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026 Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil
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Match Events

61' Event
Cabrera M.

AI Match Summary

Erbil in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Erbil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Erbil
20%
Draws
33%
Al Karkh
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Erbil have won more games recently than Al Karkh.
  • Model gives Erbil a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Erbil Clean Sheet 20%
Al Karkh Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Al Karkh
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 19 12
Draws 8 8
Losses 3 11
Goals Scored 1.7 1.32
Goals Conceded 0.73 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 25, 2026 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Erbil
0:1
May 2, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Karkh
1:0
Jan 27, 2026 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Erbil
1:1
Jun 29, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Karkh
1:3
Jan 19, 2025 Stars League
Al Karkh vs Erbil
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabrera M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Al Karkh Compare

Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 76 / 100
Al Karkh 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Al Karkh

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Erbil scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Al Karkh's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Erbil went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Al Karkh
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3
Erbil
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al Karma
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
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Al Karkh

(Away)
17 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Naft Missan
13 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Duhok
09 Sept
Al Talaba
3 : 2
Al Karkh
04 Sept
Karbala
1 : 0
Al Karkh
29 Aug
Al Karkh
2 : 2
Al Kahraba
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)