Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Erbil vs Al Minaa Prediction & H2H Stats

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Miullen
Assist: Bayesh I.
82' Event
John C.

AI Match Summary

Erbil in this Stars League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Erbil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Erbil
30%
Draws
12%
Al Minaa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Erbil have won more games recently than Al Minaa.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Erbil taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%
Al Minaa Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Al Minaa
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 18 7
Draws 8 10
Losses 2 12
Goals Scored 1.75 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.68 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Minaa
2:0
Mar 13, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Minaa
3:2
Sep 20, 2025 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Erbil
1:3
Mar 7, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Minaa
0:1
Dec 5, 2024 Stars League
Al Minaa vs Erbil
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Miullen
1 Goals
Assists Leader John C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Al Minaa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 95 / 100
Al Minaa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Al Minaa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Erbil scored in 86% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Al Minaa conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Erbil went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Al Minaa
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
0.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3
Erbil
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al Karma
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
Page 1 of 6

Al Minaa

(Away)
18 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Duhok
13 Sept
Al Kahraba
2 : 1
Al Minaa
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
8 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
9 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
10 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
11 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
12 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 8 1 5 2 11:12 8
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 8 2 2 4 9:12 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)