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Erbil vs Al Qassim Prediction & H2H Stats

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026 Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil
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Match Events

42' Event
Chobanov M.
75' Event
Chobanov M.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Erbil and Al Qassim finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Erbil.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Erbil
20%
Draws
7%
Al Qassim
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Erbil carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on Erbil taking it.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 22.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%
Al Qassim Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Al Qassim
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 19 0
Draws 8 6
Losses 3 24
Goals Scored 1.7 1.97
Goals Conceded 0.73 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Qassim
2:0
Feb 21, 2026 Stars League
Al Qassim vs Erbil
0:2
Apr 3, 2025 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Qassim
0:1
Oct 24, 2024 Stars League
Al Qassim vs Erbil
4:0
Apr 6, 2024 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Qassim
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Chobanov M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Al Qassim Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 95 / 100
Al Qassim 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Al Qassim

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Erbil scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Al Qassim conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Erbil has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Al-Qassim
1.75 Goals Scored 0.8
0.63 Goals Conceded 2.2
75% Over 1.5 80%
38% Over 2.5 60%
25% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3
Erbil
14 Sept
Erbil
1 : 2
Al Karma
08 Sept
Erbil
2 : 0
Diyala
04 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Erbil
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
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Al Qassim

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Mosul
3 : 0
Al-Qassim
28 May
Al-Qassim
1 : 2
Al Najaf
19 May
Al-Qassim
2 : 5
Naft Missan
14 May
Al Zawraa
1 : 1
Al-Qassim
10 May
Duhok
2 : 1
Al-Qassim
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)