Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Erbil vs Al Zawraa

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026 Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Cabrera M.
72' Event
Riascos B.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2025/2026 game between Erbil and Al Zawraa finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Erbil
15%
Draws
21%
Al Zawraa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Erbil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Al Zawraa haven't matched Erbil's recent run of results.
  • Erbil are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Erbil Clean Sheet 68%
Al Zawraa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Erbil Al Zawraa
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 15 12
Draws 7 10
Losses 5 6
Goals Scored 1.59 1.39
Goals Conceded 0.96 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Zawraa
1:1
Jan 17, 2026 Stars League
Al Zawraa vs Erbil
1:0
Mar 12, 2025 Stars League
Al Zawraa vs Erbil
4:0
Oct 5, 2024 Stars League
Erbil vs Al Zawraa
1:1
May 1, 2024 Stars League
Al Zawraa vs Erbil
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erbil Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabrera M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Al Zawraa Compare

Top Goalscorer Riascos B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erbil 95 / 100
Al Zawraa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Erbil Al Zawraa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erbil Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Erbil scored in 74% of their last 27 outings.

Al Zawraa has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Erbil has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Erbil VS Al Zawraa
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Erbil

(Home)
02 Jun
Erbil
3 : 1
Baghdad
28 May
Zakho
1 : 2
Erbil
20 May
Al Shorta
0 : 2
Erbil
16 May
Erbil
0 : 1
Newroz
11 May
Al Najaf
1 : 4
Erbil
Page 1 of 6

Al Zawraa

(Away)
01 Jun
Al Najaf
1 : 0
Al Zawraa
27 May
Al Zawraa
0 : 1
Al Naft
20 May
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
2 : 1
Al Zawraa
14 May
Al Zawraa
1 : 1
Al-Qassim
10 May
Al Minaa
0 : 2
Al Zawraa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)