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Eritrea vs Eswatini

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Stade d'Honneur
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Sulieman A.
Penalty Missed
81' Event
Teklezgi A.
Assist: Tadese N.
90' Event
Sulieman A.
Assist: Idris J.

AI Match Summary

Eritrea in this Africa Cup of Nations matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Eritrea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Eritrea
6%
Draws
4%
Eswatini
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Eritrea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Eswatini have won more games recently than Eritrea.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Eritrea taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Africa Cup of Nations fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.6%
Eritrea Clean Sheet 68%
Eswatini Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Eritrea Eswatini
Matches Played 16 31
Wins 5 6
Draws 2 9
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 0 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Eswatini vs Eritrea
1:2
Mar 25, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations
Eritrea vs Eswatini
2:0
Sep 4, 2008 World Championship
Eswatini vs Eritrea
0:0
May 30, 2008 World Championship
Eritrea vs Eswatini
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Eritrea Compare

Top Goalscorer Teklezgi A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sulieman A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Eswatini Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Eritrea 95 / 100
Eswatini 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Eritrea Eswatini

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ERI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Eswatini has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Recent resilience: Eritrea stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Eswatini has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Eritrea scored in 44% of their last 16 games.

Scoring Trends

Eritrea VS Eswatini
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Djibouti1
South Sudan4
Chad0
Burundi8
Somalia1
Mauritius0
Seychelles1
Lesotho2
Eritrea4
Eswatini1
Sao Tome and Principe0
Ethiopia4