Sport Picks

Germany

Oberliga Westfalen 2022/2023

TUS Bovinghausen

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This Oberliga Westfalen 2022/2023 encounter between Erndtebruck and TUS Bovinghausen promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Erndtebruck averages 1.4 goals scored and 2.3 conceded in recent matches. TUS Bovinghausen shows a form average of 1.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for Erndtebruck, 2 wins for TUS Bovinghausen, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 30.04.23 ended in a 0:6 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 3.35 for Erndtebruck and 1.11 for TUS Bovinghausen, suggesting the primary value lies in the Erndtebruck double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%

Erndtebruck

15%

Draws

39%

TUS Bovinghausen

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Erndtebruck

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Erndtebruck picked up more points recently compared to TUS Bovinghausen.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (3.35 vs 1.11 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%

Over 1.5 Goals 95%

Over 2.5 Goals 77%

Over 3.5 Goals 46%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%

Erndtebruck Clean Sheet 21%

TUS Bovinghausen Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 86%

Second Half Goal 90%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Erndtebruck	TUS Bovinghausen
Matches Played	30	24
Wins	9	5
Draws	6	2
Losses	15	17
Goals Scored	1.43	1.5
Goals Conceded	2.33	3.46

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

30.04.23 Oberliga Westfalen

Erndtebruck vs TUS Bovinghausen

Possession: 60% - 53% Cards: 3 - 1

0:6

06.11.22 Oberliga Westfalen

TUS Bovinghausen vs Erndtebruck

Possession: 41% - 41% Cards: 4 - 2

4:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Erndtebruck

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

TUS Bovinghausen

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Erndtebruck Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A

0 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

TUS Bovinghausen Compare

Top Goalscorer Uzun K.

3 Goals

Assists Leader Anan I.

2 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Erndtebruck 46 / 100

TUS Bovinghausen 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Erndtebruck TUS Bovinghausen

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Erndtebruck or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +21%

2.63

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.6%

1.41

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Erndtebruck 51%

TUS Bovinghausen 31%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Erndtebruck 44%

TUS Bovinghausen 41%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Erndtebruck 46%

TUS Bovinghausen 39%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Erndtebruck 48%

TUS Bovinghausen 37%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Erndtebruck 41%

TUS Bovinghausen 43%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Erndtebruck 53%

TUS Bovinghausen 45%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Erndtebruck attacking → ← attacking TUS Bovinghausen

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Erndtebruck have found the net in 77% of their last 30 matches.

TUS Bovinghausen have conceded at least one goal in 96% of their last 24 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 5.50 goals per match.

Erndtebruck remained undefeated in 4 of their last 5 overall matchups.

TUS Bovinghausen suffered defeat in 5 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 17

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 5.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gutersloh	34	23	3	8	67:38	72
2	Preussen Munster 2	34	18	11	5	82:46	65
3	Paderborn II	34	18	10	6	53:23	64
4	Lotte	34	18	6	10	64:43	60
5	TUS Bovinghausen	34	15	8	11	73:59	53
6	Westfalia Rhynern	34	14	10	10	52:48	52
7	ASC 09 Dortmund	34	14	7	13	51:55	49
8	Clarholz	34	13	9	12	53:48	48
9	Finnentrop/Bamenohl	34	14	5	15	66:56	47
10	Eintracht Rheine	34	13	7	14	52:60	46
11	Vreden	34	11	10	13	59:67	43
12	Schermbeck 2020	34	10	9	15	43:56	39
13	Gievenbeck	34	9	9	16	48:50	36
14	Siegen	34	9	8	17	50:54	35
15	Sprockhovel	34	8	11	15	48:69	35
16	TUS Ennepetal	34	9	8	17	32:59	35
17	Erndtebruck	34	9	7	18	47:85	34
18	Delbrucker	34	8	8	18	47:71	32