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Ertis Pavlodar vs Kyzylzhar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Pavlodar
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kyzylzhar in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kyzylzhar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Ertis Pavlodar
20%
Draws
15%
Kyzylzhar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kyzylzhar lately — more wins on the board than Ertis Pavlodar.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on Ertis Pavlodar taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 68%
Kyzylzhar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ertis Pavlodar Kyzylzhar
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 7 8
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1 1
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 10, 2026 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Kyzylzhar
0:2
Apr 29, 2026 Kazakhstan Cup
Ertis Pavlodar vs Kyzylzhar
1:2
Mar 20, 2026 Premier League
Kyzylzhar vs Ertis Pavlodar
2:2
Sep 19, 2020 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Kyzylzhar
0:0
May 20, 2020 Premier League
Kyzylzhar vs Ertis Pavlodar
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ertis Pavlodar 95 / 100
Kyzylzhar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ertis Pavlodar Kyzylzhar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ertis Pavlodar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kyzylzhar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Attacking prowess: Ertis Pavlodar scored in 65% of their last 26 outings.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Ertis Pavlodar stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ertis Pavlodar VS Kyzylzhar
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ertis Pavlodar

(Home)
18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2
Ertis Pavlodar
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1
Okzhetpes
05 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0
Ertis Pavlodar
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1
Aktobe
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2
Tobol
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Kyzylzhar

(Away)
18 Sept
Kyzylzhar
1 : 1
Kaisar Kyzylorda
12 Sept
Zhenis
3 : 1
Kyzylzhar
05 Sept
Kyzylzhar
0 : 1
Atyrau
29 Aug
Ordabasy
3 : 0
Kyzylzhar
16 Aug
Kyzylzhar
1 : 1
FC Astana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Kyzylzhar 27 7 6 14 28:40 27
12 Ertis Pavlodar 26 6 8 12 26:36 26
13 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
14 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)