Sport Picks
Ertis Pavlodar vs Okzhetpes - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Kazakhstan
Premier League Centralnyj Stadion, Pavlodar 
Match Events
17'
17'
Leonardo Kalil
Assist: Karimov R.
33'
33'
Leonardo Kalil
Assist: Esimbekov D.
46'
46'
Sub
Malikaydar S. In: Nyrkov D.
Out: Malikaydar S.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Ertis Pavlodar and Okzhetpes finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ertis Pavlodar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
15%
49%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Okzhetpes
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Okzhetpes carry the better recent record into this one.
- Okzhetpes are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 11%
Okzhetpes Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ertis Pavlodar | Okzhetpes |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 7 | 14 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 13 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 0.96 | 1.64 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.36 | 1.43 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 13, 2026 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Okzhetpes
2:1
Apr 12, 2026 Premier League
Okzhetpes vs Ertis Pavlodar
2:1
Mar 15, 2024 Kazakhstan Cup
Ertis Pavlodar vs Okzhetpes
1:0
Oct 25, 2020 Premier League
Okzhetpes vs Ertis Pavlodar
0:0
May 30, 2020 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Okzhetpes
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ertis Pavlodar Compare
Top Goalscorer Leonardo Kalil
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Okzhetpes Compare
Top Goalscorer Omirtaev O.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ertis Pavlodar 27 / 100
Okzhetpes 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ertis Pavlodar Okzhetpes
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Okzhetpes Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ertis Pavlodar scored in 63% of their last 27 games.
Defensive concern: Okzhetpes conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.
Solid form: Ertis Pavlodar remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Ertis Pavlodar VS Okzhetpes
1.5 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Ertis Pavlodar
(Home) 10 Oct
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Kyzylzhar
18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
05 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Aktobe
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Kyzylzhar
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Aktobe
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Tobol
01 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
3 : 2 Kaspij Aktau
Page 1 of 3
Okzhetpes
(Away) 18 Sept
Okzhetpes
3 : 1 Zhenis
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
05 Sept
Okzhetpes
2 : 1 Ordabasy
29 Aug
Kaisar Kyzylorda
2 : 3 Okzhetpes
16 Aug
Atyrau
0 : 2 Okzhetpes
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
29 Aug
Kaisar Kyzylorda
2 : 3 Okzhetpes
16 Aug
Atyrau
0 : 2 Okzhetpes
09 Aug
FC Astana
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
25 Jul
Aktobe
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 51:18 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 52:20 | 60 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 43:27 | 48 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 41:32 | 45 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 36:36 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 35:36 | 37 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 27:34 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24:32 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:36 | 29 |
| 11 | Kyzylzhar | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 28:40 | 27 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 20:29 | 26 |
| 13 | Ertis Pavlodar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 26:36 | 26 |
| 14 | Altai | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:36 | 25 |
| 15 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22:33 | 24 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 26:45 | 22 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)
