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Esperance Tunis vs Al Ahly Prediction & H2H Stats

Africa Africa

CAF Champions League 2025/2026 Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi, Radès
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Diarra J.
26'
Hany M.
29'
Ogbelu O.

AI Match Summary

Esperance Tunis in this CAF Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Esperance Tunis
15%
Draws
44%
Al Ahly
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al Ahly

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Esperance Tunis have won more games recently than Al Ahly.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Esperance Tunis have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Esperance Tunis, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Esperance Tunis Clean Sheet 68%
Al Ahly Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esperance Tunis Al Ahly
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 17 15
Draws 6 7
Losses 5 6
Goals Scored 1.5 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 CAF Champions League
Al Ahly vs Esperance Tunis
2:3
Mar 15, 2026 CAF Champions League
Esperance Tunis vs Al Ahly
1:0
May 25, 2024 CAF Champions League
Al Ahly vs Esperance Tunis
1:0
May 18, 2024 CAF Champions League
Esperance Tunis vs Al Ahly
0:0
May 19, 2023 CAF Champions League
Al Ahly vs Esperance Tunis
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esperance Tunis 42 / 100
Al Ahly 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esperance Tunis Al Ahly

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esperance Tunis scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Esperance Tunis stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Al Ahly let in goals in 57% of their last 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Esperance Tunis VS Al Ahly
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Esperance Tunis

(Home)
04 Oct
Esperance Tunis
3 : 1
Military Union
13 Sept
Hammam-Lif
0 : 1
Esperance Tunis
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1
AS Marsa
30 Aug
Jeunesse Sportive
3 : 1
Esperance Tunis
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2
Etoile Sahel
Page 1 of 6

Al Ahly

(Away)
15 Sept
Al Ahly
2 : 0
Abu Qir Semad
09 Sept
Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)
1 : 1
Al Ahly
03 Sept
Al Ahly
1 : 0
Smouha
28 Aug
ZED FC
0 : 2
Al Ahly
23 Aug
Al Ahly
3 : 2
Enppi
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Esperance Tunis 4
Al Ahly 2
Mamelodi Sundowns 3
Stade Malien 2
FAR Rabat 3
Pyramids 2
Berkane 2
Al-Hilal Omdurman 1
Semi-finals
Esperance Tunis 0
Mamelodi Sundowns 2
FAR Rabat 2
Berkane 1
Final
Mamelodi Sundowns 2
FAR Rabat 1