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Esperance Tunis vs AS Marsa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue Professionnelle 1 Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi, Radès
Esperance Tunis Logo

Esperance Tunis

2 - 1
FT
AS Marsa Logo

AS Marsa

Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Monyebe F.
36' Event
Mani N.
43'
Jebali O.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue Professionnelle 1 game between Esperance Tunis and AS Marsa finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Esperance Tunis.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Esperance Tunis
15%
Draws
31%
AS Marsa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Esperance Tunis

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • AS Marsa haven't matched Esperance Tunis's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Esperance Tunis taking it.
  • Regular Ligue Professionnelle 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Esperance Tunis have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Esperance Tunis Clean Sheet 20%
AS Marsa Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esperance Tunis AS Marsa
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 11
Draws 6 3
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 1.48 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.24 0.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Esperance Tunis vs AS Marsa
2:1
Aug 8, 2026 Club Friendly
Esperance Tunis vs AS Marsa
1:2
Mar 7, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Esperance Tunis vs AS Marsa
1:0
Oct 1, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Esperance Tunis
0:3
Dec 5, 2023 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Esperance Tunis
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esperance Tunis Compare

Top Goalscorer Monyebe F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Belaili Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.62

AS Marsa Compare

Top Goalscorer Mani N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.67
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esperance Tunis 42 / 100
AS Marsa 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esperance Tunis AS Marsa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esperance Tunis scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

AS Marsa let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Esperance Tunis went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Esperance Tunis VS AS Marsa
1.63 Goals Scored 0.86
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.86
50% Over 1.5 43%
50% Over 2.5 43%
25% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Esperance Tunis

(Home)
04 Oct
Esperance Tunis
3 : 1
Military Union
13 Sept
Hammam-Lif
0 : 1
Esperance Tunis
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1
AS Marsa
30 Aug
Jeunesse Sportive
3 : 1
Esperance Tunis
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2
Etoile Sahel
Page 1 of 6

AS Marsa

(Away)
12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0
Etoile Sahel
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1
AS Marsa
29 Aug
AS Marsa
0 : 0
PS Sakiet Eddaier
23 Aug
CA Bizertin
1 : 0
AS Marsa
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2
AS Marsa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Africain 3 3 0 0 3:0 9
2 Esperance Tunis 4 3 0 1 7:6 9
3 Ben Guerdane 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
4 CS Sfaxien 4 2 2 0 6:3 8
5 Monastir 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
6 PS Sakiet Eddaier 4 2 2 0 4:1 8
7 Jeunesse Sportive 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
8 CA Bizertin 4 2 1 1 3:3 7
9 Stade Tunisien 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
10 Etoile Sahel 4 1 1 2 5:6 4
11 AS Marsa 4 1 1 2 2:3 4
12 Zarzis 4 1 0 3 3:5 3
13 Metlaoui 4 1 0 3 2:4 3
14 Olympique Beja 4 0 2 2 3:5 2
15 Hamam-Sousse 4 0 1 3 1:5 1
16 Hammam-Lif 4 0 0 4 0:4 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)