Sport Picks
Esperance Tunis vs Etoile Sahel - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Tunisia
Ligue Professionnelle 1 Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi, Radès 
Match Events
15'
15'
Belhadj M.
19'
19'
Bouslama M.
25'
25'
Belaili Y.
Penalty Missed
AI Match Summary
The Ligue Professionnelle 1 game between Esperance Tunis and Etoile Sahel finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Esperance Tunis.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
54%
15%
31%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Esperance Tunis
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Etoile Sahel haven't matched Esperance Tunis's recent run of results.
- Esperance Tunis are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and Esperance Tunis have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 58.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Esperance Tunis Clean Sheet 68%
Etoile Sahel Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Esperance Tunis | Etoile Sahel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 17 | 13 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 6 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.57 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.79 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.29 | 1.15 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 23, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Esperance Tunis vs Etoile Sahel
3:2
Apr 4, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Etoile Sahel vs Esperance Tunis
0:0
Oct 5, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Esperance Tunis vs Etoile Sahel
1:0
Feb 26, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Esperance Tunis vs Etoile Sahel
3:0
Nov 3, 2024 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Etoile Sahel vs Esperance Tunis
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Esperance Tunis Compare
Top Goalscorer Haj Ali M.
2 Goals Assists Leader Belhadj M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65
Etoile Sahel Compare
Top Goalscorer Abid O.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.05
Avg xA / game 0.64
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Esperance Tunis 77 / 100
Etoile Sahel 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Esperance Tunis Etoile Sahel
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Esperance Tunis Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Esperance Tunis scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.
Etoile Sahel let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.
Games between these two average 2.20 goals.
Solid form: Esperance Tunis remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Esperance Tunis VS Etoile Sahel
1.25 Goals Scored 1.17
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.33
50% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 17%
Recent Form & Match History
Esperance Tunis
(Home) 18 Oct
Asswehly
1 : 0 Esperance Tunis
10 Oct
Esperance Tunis
3 : 1 Olympique Beja
04 Oct
Esperance Tunis
3 : 1 Military Union
13 Sept
Hammam-Lif
0 : 1 Esperance Tunis
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1 AS Marsa
Page 1 of 6
10 Oct
Esperance Tunis
3 : 1 Olympique Beja
04 Oct
Esperance Tunis
3 : 1 Military Union
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1 AS Marsa
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2 Etoile Sahel
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2 AS Marsa
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Etoile Sahel
(Away) 18 Oct
Olympique Beja
1 : 2 Etoile Sahel
11 Oct
Etoile Sahel
0 : 1 Hammam-Lif
12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0 Etoile Sahel
06 Sept
Etoile Sahel
1 : 1 Jeunesse Sportive
30 Aug
Etoile Sahel
2 : 1 Metlaoui
Page 1 of 6
18 Oct
Olympique Beja
1 : 2 Etoile Sahel
12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0 Etoile Sahel
23 Aug
Esperance Tunis
3 : 2 Etoile Sahel
14 May
CS Sfaxien
3 : 1 Etoile Sahel
04 May
Zarzis
3 : 1 Etoile Sahel
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Guerdane | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11:6 | 14 |
| 2 | Esperance Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10:7 | 12 |
| 3 | Monastir | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8:5 | 12 |
| 4 | PS Sakiet Eddaier | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5:2 | 11 |
| 5 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 9 |
| 6 | Jeunesse Sportive | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6:5 | 9 |
| 7 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 8 | CA Bizertin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3:3 | 8 |
| 9 | AS Marsa | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 10 | Stade Tunisien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 7 |
| 11 | Etoile Sahel | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:8 | 7 |
| 12 | Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 13 | Hammam-Lif | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 14 | Metlaoui | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3:9 | 3 |
| 15 | Olympique Beja | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5:10 | 2 |
| 16 | Hamam-Sousse | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1:9 | 1 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)
