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Essube vs Araxa

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 3 2024
Sat, Sep 28, 2024
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Essube host Araxa in the Mineiro 3 2024. Little to choose between these two on current form. Essube have averaged 1.35 scored and 1.4 conceded recently, against Araxa's 1.05 scored and 0.65 conceded. Past meetings favor Essube slightly — 0-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 28, 2024, ending 0:0. The numbers (1.60 xG vs 1.06) point toward Araxa. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Essube
20%
Draws
80%
Araxa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Araxa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Araxa lately — more wins on the board than Essube.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Araxa taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Essube Clean Sheet 20%
Araxa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Essube Araxa
Matches Played 20 20
Wins 6 9
Draws 4 7
Losses 10 4
Goals Scored 1.35 1.05
Goals Conceded 1.4 0.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 28, 2024 Mineiro 3
Essube vs Araxa
0:0
Sep 21, 2024 Mineiro 3
Araxa vs Essube
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Essube 12 / 100
Araxa 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Essube Araxa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Araxa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Essube's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 20 recent games.

Araxa let in goals in 50% of their last 20 matches.

Games between these two average 0.00 goals.

Araxa lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Essube VS Araxa
2 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Essube

(Home)
22 Nov
Coimbra Esporte Clube
2 : 0
Essube
15 Nov
Essube
1 : 3
Boa
08 Nov
Tupi-MG
1 : 0
Essube
01 Nov
Novo Esporte
2 : 0
Essube
25 Oct
Essube
0 : 2
Paracatu
Page 1 of 4

Araxa

(Away)
07 Nov
Mamore
2 : 1
Araxa
28 Oct
Araxa
1 : 1
Mamore
14 Oct
Nacional Uberaba
1 : 1
Araxa
08 Oct
Araxa
1 : 0
Pirapora
02 Oct
Mamore
2 : 1
Araxa
Page 1 of 4

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Coimbra Esporte Clube 8 6 2 0 21:7 20
2 Contagem 8 4 3 1 14:6 15
3 America TO 8 4 1 3 9:6 13
4 Boston City 8 1 2 5 5:18 5
5 Social 8 0 2 6 3:15 2
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guarani-MG 10 9 0 1 21:4 27
2 Tupynambas 10 7 0 3 29:8 21
3 Inter de Minas 10 4 3 3 19:17 15
4 Villa Real 10 4 1 5 15:20 13
5 Pocos de Caldas 10 2 2 6 12:20 8
6 Tres Coracoes 10 1 0 9 5:32 3
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Essube 8 5 1 2 20:10 16
2 Uberaba 8 5 1 2 18:11 16
3 Paracatu 8 4 2 2 18:6 14
4 Nacional Uberaba 8 4 0 4 17:14 12
5 Araguari 8 0 0 8 1:33 0
6 Araxa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Mineiro 3 2024 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams