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Este vs Luparense FC

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Tramonte F.
20' Event
Aloia D.

AI Match Summary

Este play Luparense FC in the Serie D - Group C. It looks like a close match. Recently, Este averaged 1 goals scored and 1 conceded. Luparense FC averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Este won 1, Luparense FC won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Este and 1.25 for Luparense FC. This points to a Este double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Este
22%
Draws
18%
Luparense FC
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Este

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Este has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Luparense FC.
  • Model forecasts a 60% win probability edge for Este.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Serie D - Group C provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Este Clean Sheet 68%
Luparense FC Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Este Luparense FC
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 8 11
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1 1.5
Goals Conceded 1 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group C
Este vs Luparense FC
2:0
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Luparense FC vs Este
1:1
Feb 9, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Luparense FC vs Este
2:0
Oct 13, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Este vs Luparense FC
1:1
Apr 28, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Luparense FC vs Este
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Este Compare

Top Goalscorer Tramonte F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aloia D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Luparense FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Este 68 / 100
Luparense FC 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Este Luparense FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EST Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Este scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Luparense FC let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Este went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Luparense FC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Este VS Luparense FC
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Treviso34216750:2569
2Legnago Salus34187963:4161
3Clodiense34179847:2960
4Este341413740:2955
5Mestre341413737:2955
6Cjarlins Muzane341312941:3951
7Brian Lignano341681058:3450
8Conegliano3413111036:2850
9Bassano Virtus341214837:2750
10Campodarsego341391237:3448
11Altavilla341016828:2446
12Calvi Noale341351638:4044
13Luparense FC3410131136:3943
14Vigasio348141244:4638
15San Luigi348101633:5434
16FC Obermais348101633:4634
17Adriese34562324:6218
18Portogruaro34182525:8111