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Stadium Background

Esteghlal TEH vs Shams Azar Qazvin

Iran Iran

Persian Gulf Pro League Azadi Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Mohammadi R.
26'
Mohammadi R.
26'
Mohammadi R.

AI Match Summary

Esteghlal TEH in this Persian Gulf Pro League matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Esteghlal TEH.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Esteghlal TEH
17%
Draws
13%
Shams Azar Qazvin
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Esteghlal TEH

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Esteghlal TEH lately — more wins on the board than Shams Azar Qazvin.
  • Esteghlal TEH are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Persian Gulf Pro League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Esteghlal TEH Clean Sheet 68%
Shams Azar Qazvin Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteghlal TEH Shams Azar Qazvin
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 15 4
Draws 10 13
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 0.88 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 5, 2026 Persian Gulf Pro League
Esteghlal TEH vs Shams Azar Qazvin
3:2
Sep 26, 2025 Persian Gulf Pro League
Shams Azar Qazvin vs Esteghlal TEH
1:1
Feb 13, 2025 Hazfi Cup
Shams Azar Qazvin vs Esteghlal TEH
1:2
Jan 20, 2025 Persian Gulf Pro League
Esteghlal TEH vs Shams Azar Qazvin
0:1
Aug 16, 2024 Persian Gulf Pro League
Shams Azar Qazvin vs Esteghlal TEH
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esteghlal TEH Compare

Top Goalscorer Jalali A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Saharkhizan S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Shams Azar Qazvin Compare

Top Goalscorer Fadakar S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteghlal TEH 77 / 100
Shams Azar Qazvin 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteghlal TEH Shams Azar Qazvin

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EST Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteghlal TEH's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Esteghlal TEH went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Shams Azar Qazvin registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Esteghlal TEH VS Shams Azar Qazvin
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
25% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Esteghlal TEH22118329:1641
2Tractor22109330:1239
3Sepahan22116524:1339
4Gol Gohar23106724:2436
5Chadormalu2298527:1935
6Persepolis2297623:1934
7Foolad22710521:1631
8Fajr Sepasi2386925:2730
9Kheybar Khorramabad2378822:2429
10Malavan2278713:2129
11Esteghlal Khuzestan2267916:2325
12Paykan2359915:2124
13Shams Azar Qazvin23313715:1922
14Aluminium Arak22571014:2122
15Zob Ahan21310812:1919
16Mes Rafsanjan22361313:2915