Sport Picks
Esteghlal TEH vs Shams Azar Qazvin Prediction & H2H Stats
Iran
Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 Azadi Stadium, Tehran 
Match Events
13'
13'
Mohammadi R.
26'
26'
Mohammadi R.
26'
26'
Mohammadi R.
AI Match Summary
Esteghlal TEH in this Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Esteghlal TEH.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
35%
20%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Esteghlal TEH
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Esteghlal TEH lately — more wins on the board than Shams Azar Qazvin.
- Esteghlal TEH are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Esteghlal TEH Clean Sheet 68%
Shams Azar Qazvin Clean Sheet 17%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Esteghlal TEH | Shams Azar Qazvin |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 27 |
| Wins | 17 | 5 |
| Draws | 9 | 11 |
| Losses | 4 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 0.67 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.53 | 0.89 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 0.32 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 5, 2026 Persian Gulf Pro League
Esteghlal TEH vs Shams Azar Qazvin
3:2
Sep 26, 2025 Persian Gulf Pro League
Shams Azar Qazvin vs Esteghlal TEH
1:1
Feb 13, 2025 Hazfi Cup
Shams Azar Qazvin vs Esteghlal TEH
1:2
Jan 20, 2025 Persian Gulf Pro League
Esteghlal TEH vs Shams Azar Qazvin
0:1
Aug 16, 2024 Persian Gulf Pro League
Shams Azar Qazvin vs Esteghlal TEH
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Esteghlal TEH Compare
Top Goalscorer Jalali A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Saharkhizan S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Shams Azar Qazvin Compare
Top Goalscorer Fadakar S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.29
Avg xA / game 0.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Esteghlal TEH 95 / 100
Shams Azar Qazvin 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Esteghlal TEH Shams Azar Qazvin
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Esteghlal TEH Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recent resilience: Esteghlal TEH stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Esteghlal TEH's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Difficult form: Shams Azar Qazvin registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Esteghlal TEH VS Shams Azar Qazvin
1 Goals Scored 0.5
0.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Esteghlal TEH
(Home) 14 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
3 : 0 Al-Sadd
10 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
1 : 0 Paykan
06 Sept
Aluminium Arak
0 : 0 Esteghlal TEH
02 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
1 : 1 Persepolis
28 Aug
Foolad
0 : 0 Esteghlal TEH
Page 1 of 6
14 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
3 : 0 Al-Sadd
10 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
1 : 0 Paykan
02 Sept
Esteghlal TEH
1 : 1 Persepolis
23 Aug
Esteghlal TEH
2 : 0 Sepahan
14 Aug
Esteghlal TEH
4 : 0 Mes Shahr Babak
Page 1 of 4
Shams Azar Qazvin
(Away) 10 Sept
Shams Azar Qazvin
2 : 3 Gol Gohar
06 Sept
Chadormalu
1 : 0 Shams Azar Qazvin
01 Sept
Shams Azar Qazvin
0 : 0 Tractor
28 Aug
Mazandaran
0 : 2 Shams Azar Qazvin
23 Aug
Shams Azar Qazvin
1 : 2 Aluminium Arak
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Chadormalu
1 : 0 Shams Azar Qazvin
28 Aug
Mazandaran
0 : 2 Shams Azar Qazvin
19 Aug
Foolad
1 : 1 Shams Azar Qazvin
20 Feb
Fajr Sepasi
1 : 0 Shams Azar Qazvin
05 Feb
Esteghlal TEH
3 : 2 Shams Azar Qazvin
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteghlal TEH | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 29:16 | 41 |
| 2 | Tractor | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 30:12 | 39 |
| 3 | Sepahan | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 24:13 | 39 |
| 4 | Gol Gohar | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 24:24 | 36 |
| 5 | Chadormalu | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 27:19 | 35 |
| 6 | Persepolis | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 23:19 | 34 |
| 7 | Foolad | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 21:16 | 31 |
| 8 | Fajr Sepasi | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 25:27 | 30 |
| 9 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 22:24 | 29 |
| 10 | Malavan | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 13:21 | 29 |
| 11 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 16:23 | 25 |
| 12 | Paykan | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 15:21 | 24 |
| 13 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 23 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 15:19 | 22 |
| 14 | Aluminium Arak | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14:21 | 22 |
| 15 | Zob Ahan | 21 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 12:19 | 19 |
| 16 | Mes Rafsanjan | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 13:29 | 15 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
