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Esteli vs Chinandega Prediction & H2H Stats

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2020/2021 Estadio Independencia, Estelí
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Acuna L.
19' Event
Acevedo O.
69' Event
Rodriguez R.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Primera 2020/2021 game between Esteli and Chinandega finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Esteli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Esteli
30%
Draws
8%
Chinandega
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Esteli carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 62% — that's where the model lands on Esteli taking it.
  • Regular Liga Primera 2020/2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Esteli have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%
Chinandega Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli Chinandega
Matches Played 44 30
Wins 32 4
Draws 7 10
Losses 5 16
Goals Scored 2.3 1
Goals Conceded 0.93 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2021 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Chinandega
4:1
Jan 28, 2021 Liga Primera
Chinandega vs Esteli
2:4
Dec 7, 2020 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Chinandega
1:0
Nov 29, 2020 Liga Primera
Chinandega vs Esteli
2:2
Oct 1, 2020 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Chinandega
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Acuna L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Acevedo O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71

Chinandega Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabria Julio C. M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 95 / 100
Chinandega 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli Chinandega

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteli scored in 86% of their last 44 games.

Chinandega let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Esteli stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Esteli

(Home)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
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Chinandega

(Away)
08 Jun
UNAN-Managua
9 : 2
Chinandega
04 Jun
Chinandega
1 : 5
UNAN-Managua
27 Jun
Chinandega
3 : 3
Sport Sebaco
20 Jun
Sport Sebaco
2 : 0
Chinandega
05 May
Chinandega
0 : 3
Walter Ferreti
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Diriangen 18 13 1 4 36:16 40
2 Esteli 18 12 2 4 34:13 38
3 Managua FC 18 10 3 5 41:23 33
4 Walter Ferreti 18 10 3 5 29:17 33
5 Ocotal 18 7 5 6 22:21 26
6 Real Madriz 18 6 3 9 18:26 21
7 Jalapa 18 4 5 9 21:32 17
8 CD Junior 18 4 4 10 16:33 16
9 Juventus FC 18 4 3 11 17:33 15
10 Chinandega 18 3 5 10 17:37 14
Promotion - Liga Primera 2020/2021 (Clausura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera 2020/2021 (Clausura - Winners)