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Esteli vs Diriangen

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026 Estadio Independencia
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Casado E.
40' Event
Pemberton J.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Primera 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Esteli
11%
Draws
9%
Diriangen
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Diriangen at 1.75 per game, Esteli at 1.5.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Esteli taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%
Diriangen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli Diriangen
Matches Played 33 33
Wins 20 20
Draws 8 8
Losses 5 5
Goals Scored 1.5 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Liga Primera
Diriangen vs Esteli
1:2
May 10, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Diriangen
1:1
Apr 12, 2026 Liga Primera
Diriangen vs Esteli
1:0
Feb 12, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Diriangen
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Diriangen
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Casado E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Diriangen Compare

Top Goalscorer Pemberton J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 86 / 100
Diriangen 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli Diriangen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EST Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteli has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Esteli scored in 79% of their last 33 games.

Diriangen's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 33 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS Diriangen
1.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Diriangen-
TBD-
Managua FC2
Matagalpa4
Esteli-
TBD-
Jalapa3
Walter Ferreti0
Semi-finals
Diriangen4
Matagalpa1
Esteli3
Jalapa1
Final
Diriangen2
Esteli3