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Esteli vs Jalapa

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026 Estadio Independencia, Estelí
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Gutierrez J.
5' Event
Casado E.
32' Event
Villalobos O.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Esteli advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Esteli
30%
Draws
8%
Jalapa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Esteli come out ahead of Jalapa on wins alone.
  • Model gives Esteli a 62% chance of winning this.
  • Esteli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Esteli, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%
Jalapa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli Jalapa
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 21 13
Draws 7 7
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 1.88 1.35
Goals Conceded 0.85 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 30, 2026 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Esteli
0:1
May 7, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Jalapa
3:1
May 2, 2026 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Esteli
0:0
Mar 6, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Jalapa
2:1
Feb 1, 2026 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Esteli
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Gutierrez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Casado E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Jalapa Compare

Top Goalscorer Villalobos O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 95 / 100
Jalapa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli Jalapa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteli found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (33 games).

Jalapa let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Esteli went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS Jalapa
1.5 Goals Scored 0.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Esteli

(Home)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
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Jalapa

(Away)
05 Sept
San Marcos
3 : 1
Jalapa
02 Sept
Jalapa
1 : 1
Rancho Santana
30 Aug
Diriangen
2 : 0
Jalapa
23 Aug
Jalapa
0 : 1
Matagalpa
17 Aug
UNAN-Managua
2 : 1
Jalapa
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Diriangen -
TBD -
Managua FC 2
Matagalpa 4
Esteli -
TBD -
Jalapa 3
Walter Ferreti 0
Semi-finals
Diriangen 4
Matagalpa 1
Esteli 3
Jalapa 1
Final
Diriangen 2
Esteli 3