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Esteli vs Jalapa

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026 Estadio Independencia, Estelí
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Gutierrez J.
5' Event
Casado E.
32' Event
Villalobos O.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Esteli advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Esteli
11%
Draws
9%
Jalapa
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Esteli come out ahead of Jalapa on wins alone.
  • Model gives Esteli a 80% chance of winning this.
  • Esteli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Esteli, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%
Jalapa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli Jalapa
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 18 15
Draws 8 7
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 1.5 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 7, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Jalapa
3:1
May 2, 2026 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Esteli
0:0
Mar 6, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Jalapa
2:1
Feb 1, 2026 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Esteli
2:2
Oct 19, 2025 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Esteli
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Gutierrez J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Casado E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Jalapa Compare

Top Goalscorer Villalobos O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 86 / 100
Jalapa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli Jalapa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EST Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Esteli remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Esteli scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Jalapa let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS Jalapa
1.5 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Esteli

(Home)
18 Jul
Esteli
1 : 1
UNAN-Managua
11 Jul
Esteli
2 : 0
Xilotepelt
04 Jul
Xilotepelt
0 : 1
Esteli
17 May
Diriangen
1 : 2
Esteli
10 May
Esteli
1 : 1
Diriangen
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Jalapa

(Away)
18 Jul
Jalapa
1 : 0
Walter Ferreti
12 Jul
Jalapa
3 : 2
Matagalpa
05 Jul
Matagalpa
3 : 1
Jalapa
07 May
Esteli
3 : 1
Jalapa
02 May
Jalapa
0 : 0
Esteli
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Diriangen-
TBD-
Managua FC2
Matagalpa4
Esteli-
TBD-
Jalapa3
Walter Ferreti0
Semi-finals
Diriangen4
Matagalpa1
Esteli3
Jalapa1
Final
Diriangen2
Esteli3