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Esteli vs Managua FC Prediction & H2H Stats

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026 Estadio Independencia, Estelí
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Martinez J. A.
67'
74' Event
Barrera J.

AI Match Summary

Esteli in this Liga Primera 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Esteli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Esteli
35%
Draws
38%
Managua FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Managua FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Esteli lately — more wins on the board than Managua FC.
  • 38% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Esteli Clean Sheet 10%
Managua FC Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli Managua FC
Matches Played 37 31
Wins 23 18
Draws 8 8
Losses 6 5
Goals Scored 1.89 2
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Liga Primera
Managua FC vs Esteli
1:1
Apr 9, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Managua FC
2:1
Feb 8, 2026 Liga Primera
Managua FC vs Esteli
0:2
Dec 7, 2025 Liga Primera
Managua FC vs Esteli
1:2
Dec 1, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Managua FC
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Barrera J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Quijano J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Managua FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez J. A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 30 / 100
Managua FC 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli Managua FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Managua FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteli found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (37 games).

Managua FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Esteli remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS Managua FC
1.5 Goals Scored 2.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Esteli

(Home)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
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Managua FC

(Away)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Walter Ferreti
2 : 3
Managua FC
03 Sept
Managua FC
3 : 3
Diriangen
31 Aug
UNAN-Managua
0 : 2
Managua FC
22 Aug
Managua FC
6 : 1
Sport Sebaco
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Diriangen 18 12 3 3 40:19 39
2 Esteli 18 11 4 3 41:19 37
3 Jalapa 18 9 6 3 29:16 33
4 Managua FC 18 8 5 5 22:18 29
5 Matagalpa 18 5 7 6 30:24 22
6 Walter Ferreti 18 5 6 7 18:28 21
7 Sport Sebaco 18 6 2 10 23:24 20
8 UNAN-Managua 18 4 4 10 21:34 16
9 Rancho Santana 18 4 4 10 20:43 16
10 Real Madriz 18 4 3 11 14:33 15
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)