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Esteli vs Matagalpa

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026 Estadio Independencia, Estelí
Esteli Logo

Esteli

0 - 0
FT
Matagalpa Logo

Matagalpa

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Primera 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Esteli
20%
Draws
42%
Matagalpa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Matagalpa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Matagalpa haven't matched Esteli's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Esteli a 38% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Primera 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%
Matagalpa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli Matagalpa
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 21 9
Draws 7 6
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 2 1.45
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Matagalpa
2:0
Apr 26, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Matagalpa
0:0
Feb 23, 2026 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Esteli
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Esteli
1:0
Sep 14, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Matagalpa
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 59 / 100
Matagalpa 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli Matagalpa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteli scored in 82% of their last 33 games.

Matagalpa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Esteli stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS Matagalpa
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Esteli

(Home)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
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Matagalpa

(Away)
07 Sept
Matagalpa
0 : 3
Diriangen
04 Sept
Matagalpa
1 : 0
UNAN-Managua
30 Aug
Matagalpa
0 : 1
Rancho Santana
23 Aug
Jalapa
0 : 1
Matagalpa
16 Aug
Matagalpa
1 : 0
San Marcos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Diriangen 18 12 3 3 40:19 39
2 Esteli 18 11 4 3 41:19 37
3 Jalapa 18 9 6 3 29:16 33
4 Managua FC 18 8 5 5 22:18 29
5 Matagalpa 18 5 7 6 30:24 22
6 Walter Ferreti 18 5 6 7 18:28 21
7 Sport Sebaco 18 6 2 10 23:24 20
8 UNAN-Managua 18 4 4 10 21:34 16
9 Rancho Santana 18 4 4 10 20:43 16
10 Real Madriz 18 4 3 11 14:33 15
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)