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Esteli vs Walter Ferreti

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Hinestroza O.
31' Event
Castillo E.
48' Event
Bello O.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Primera game between Esteli and Walter Ferreti finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Esteli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Esteli
30%
Draws
23%
Walter Ferreti
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Esteli carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Esteli a 47% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Esteli have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Esteli Clean Sheet 19%
Walter Ferreti Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli Walter Ferreti
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 19 7
Draws 7 7
Losses 5 15
Goals Scored 1.84 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Walter Ferreti
4:1
Apr 16, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Walter Ferreti
2:4
Feb 15, 2026 Liga Primera
Walter Ferreti vs Esteli
0:4
Nov 28, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Walter Ferreti
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Liga Primera
Walter Ferreti vs Esteli
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Castillo E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bello O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Walter Ferreti Compare

Top Goalscorer Hinestroza O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 67 / 100
Walter Ferreti 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli Walter Ferreti

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteli scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Walter Ferreti's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Esteli stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS Walter Ferreti
1.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Esteli

(Home)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
Page 1 of 7

Walter Ferreti

(Away)
06 Sept
Walter Ferreti
2 : 3
Managua FC
02 Sept
Sport Sebaco
1 : 1
Walter Ferreti
30 Aug
San Marcos
1 : 0
Walter Ferreti
24 Aug
Walter Ferreti
0 : 1
UNAN-Managua
15 Aug
Rancho Santana
1 : 3
Walter Ferreti
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Managua FC 9 7 2 0 27:9 23
2 Diriangen 9 7 2 0 20:6 23
3 Esteli 9 5 3 1 17:6 18
4 UNAN-Managua 9 5 2 2 11:7 17
5 Sport Sebaco 9 3 2 4 9:17 11
6 San Marcos 9 3 1 5 8:14 10
7 Matagalpa 9 3 0 6 4:16 9
8 Walter Ferreti 9 2 1 6 12:16 7
9 Rancho Santana 9 1 2 6 7:14 5
10 Jalapa 9 1 1 7 4:14 4
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)