Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Esteli vs Xilotepelt

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Copa Primera Estadio Independencia, Estelí
Our Tip

Match Events

76' Event
Bonilla B.
90' Event
Bonilla B.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Esteli
20%
Draws
10%
Xilotepelt
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Esteli lately — more wins on the board than Xilotepelt.
  • Esteli are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Esteli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Esteli, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Esteli here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Esteli Clean Sheet 68%
Xilotepelt Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Esteli Xilotepelt
Matches Played 45 34
Wins 32 7
Draws 8 9
Losses 5 18
Goals Scored 2.16 0.94
Goals Conceded 0.78 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Copa Primera
Esteli vs Xilotepelt
2:0
Jul 4, 2026 Copa Primera
Xilotepelt vs Esteli
0:1
Apr 11, 2013 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Xilotepelt
12:0
Feb 20, 2013 Liga Primera
Xilotepelt vs Esteli
0:2
Oct 3, 2012 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Xilotepelt
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Bonilla B.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Xilotepelt Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Esteli 95 / 100
Xilotepelt 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Esteli Xilotepelt

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esteli found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (45 games).

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Xilotepelt has conceded goals in 76% of their last 34 outings.

Recent resilience: Esteli stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Esteli VS Xilotepelt
1.25 Goals Scored 0
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Esteli

(Home)
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
23 Aug
Esteli
0 : 2
Diriangen
Page 1 of 9

Xilotepelt

(Away)
11 Jul
Esteli
2 : 0
Xilotepelt
04 Jul
Xilotepelt
0 : 1
Esteli
27 Apr
Xilotepelt
3 : 5
Juventus FC
21 Apr
Ocotal
3 : 1
Xilotepelt
14 Apr
Xilotepelt
0 : 0
Chinandega
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Diriangen 2
Sport Sebaco 3
Matagalpa 5
Jalapa 4
Xilotepelt 0
Esteli 3
Rancho Santana 2
Managua FC 5
Semi-finals
Sport Sebaco -
Matagalpa -
Esteli -
Managua FC -
Final
TBD -
TBD -