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Stadium Background

Estonia U21 vs Lithuania U21

Europe Europe

Baltic Cup U21 Rigas Daugavgrivas, Riga
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Mustmaa K.
15' Event
Mustmaa K.
29'
Sub
Alamaa S. In: Siht R.
Out: Alamaa S.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Baltic Cup U21 tie, finishing 2-2. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Estonia U21
44%
Draws
20%
Lithuania U21
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Estonia U21 have won more games recently than Lithuania U21.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Estonia U21 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Estonia U21, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Estonia U21 Clean Sheet 16%
Lithuania U21 Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estonia U21 Lithuania U21
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 4 2
Draws 8 6
Losses 18 21
Goals Scored 1.13 0.25
Goals Conceded 2.75 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.75 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Baltic Cup U21
Estonia U21 vs Lithuania U21
2:2
Nov 16, 2022 Baltic Cup U21
Estonia U21 vs Lithuania U21
5:1
Jun 4, 2021 Friendly International
Lithuania U21 vs Estonia U21
2:0
May 29, 2018 Baltic Cup U21
Estonia U21 vs Lithuania U21
1:1
May 28, 2016 Baltic Cup U21
Lithuania U21 vs Estonia U21
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estonia U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Mustmaa K.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Lithuania U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Praleika S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Usavicius J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.23
Avg xA / game 0.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estonia U21 36 / 100
Lithuania U21 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estonia U21 Lithuania U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LIT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lithuania U21 let in goals in 97% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Estonia U21 scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Estonia U21 has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Estonia U21 VS Lithuania U21
1.13 Goals Scored 0.25
2.75 Goals Conceded 2.5
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Estonia U21

(Home)
07 Jun
Estonia U21
2 : 2
Lithuania U21
05 Jun
Latvia U21
1 : 1
Estonia U21
31 Mar
Switzerland U21
2 : 1
Estonia U21
26 Mar
Iceland U21
6 : 2
Estonia U21
13 Oct
France U21
6 : 1
Estonia U21
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Lithuania U21

(Away)
09 Jun
Lithuania U21
2 : 2
Latvia U21
07 Jun
Estonia U21
2 : 2
Lithuania U21
27 Mar
Ukraine U21
1 : 1
Lithuania U21
18 Nov
Lithuania U21
1 : 2
Turkey U21
13 Nov
Croatia U21
4 : 0
Lithuania U21
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