Sport Picks

Europe

Baltic Cup A. Le Coq Arena

Lithuania

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Estonia play Lithuania in the Baltic Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Estonia averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.9 conceded. Lithuania averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Estonia won 4, Lithuania won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 9, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Estonia and 1.50 for Lithuania. This points to a Estonia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Estonia

15%

Draws

35%

Lithuania

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Estonia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Estonia picked up more points recently compared to Lithuania.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 1.50 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 49%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%

Estonia Clean Sheet 16%

Lithuania Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Estonia	Lithuania
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	8	6
Draws	4	5
Losses	18	17
Goals Scored	0.97	0.82
Goals Conceded	1.9	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2026 Baltic Cup

Estonia vs Lithuania

Possession: 57% - 43% Cards: 1 - 1

1:0

Jun 11, 2024 Baltic Cup

Lithuania vs Estonia

Possession: 53% - 42% Cards: 2 - 0

1:2

Nov 19, 2022 Baltic Cup

Estonia vs Lithuania

Possession: 49% - 51% Cards: 0 - 0

2:0

Jun 1, 2021 Baltic Cup

Lithuania vs Estonia

Possession: 41% - 54% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

Oct 7, 2020 Friendly International

Estonia vs Lithuania

Possession: 53% - 44% Cards: 3 - 3

1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Mustmaa K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Lithuania Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estonia 48 / 100

Lithuania 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Estonia Lithuania

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Estonia or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +19%

2.38

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Estonia attacking → ← attacking Lithuania

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estonia scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Lithuania let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Estonia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Lithuania lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

28 Points in last 5 23

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13