Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Estoril vs Casa Pia

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Sierra I.
27' Event
Araujo H.
Penalty Missed
41'
Sierra I.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal game between Estoril and Casa Pia finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Casa Pia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Estoril
20%
Draws
64%
Casa Pia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Casa Pia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Estoril carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 16% — that's where the model lands on Estoril taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Estoril Clean Sheet 20%
Casa Pia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estoril Casa Pia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 6
Draws 8 9
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 1.27 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Casa Pia
1:2
Mar 7, 2026 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Casa Pia
0:0
Oct 3, 2025 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Estoril
2:2
Apr 29, 2025 Liga Portugal
Casa Pia vs Estoril
1:3
Dec 15, 2024 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Casa Pia
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estoril Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Casa Pia Compare

Top Goalscorer Clua S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pauwels B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estoril 67 / 100
Casa Pia 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estoril Casa Pia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Estoril Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estoril's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Casa Pia conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Casa Pia registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Estoril VS Casa Pia
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Estoril

(Home)
20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2
Casa Pia
14 Sept
Braga
1 : 0
Estoril
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0
Arouca
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1
Estoril
22 Aug
Estoril
0 : 2
Rio Ave
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Casa Pia

(Away)
20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2
Casa Pia
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4
FC Porto
06 Sept
Vitoria Guimaraes
0 : 0
Casa Pia
30 Aug
Casa Pia
0 : 1
Moreirense
24 Aug
Gil Vicente
2 : 0
Casa Pia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 18:3 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 22:7 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 17:8 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 11:4 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
6 Braga 6 3 2 1 7:5 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 9:9 11
8 Estrela da Amadora 7 2 4 1 14:14 10
9 Gil Vicente 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8:12 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8:14 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 9:7 7
14 Vitoria Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5:8 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 7:15 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 5:15 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 3:16 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 3:10 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)