Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Estoril vs Rio Ave

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Blesa J.
Assist: de Oliveira D.
52'
Sub
Galcik R. In: Ntoi A.
Out: Galcik R.
53'
Blesa J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal game between Estoril and Rio Ave finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rio Ave.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Estoril
20%
Draws
64%
Rio Ave
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Rio Ave

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Estoril haven't matched Rio Ave's recent run of results.
  • Estoril are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Portugal form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Estoril Clean Sheet 17%
Rio Ave Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estoril Rio Ave
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 9
Draws 8 6
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 1.27 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Rio Ave
0:2
Mar 22, 2026 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Rio Ave
1:2
Nov 1, 2025 Liga Portugal
Rio Ave vs Estoril
0:4
Feb 22, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estoril vs Rio Ave
2:1
Sep 21, 2024 Liga Portugal
Rio Ave vs Estoril
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estoril Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Rio Ave Compare

Top Goalscorer Blesa J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Monteiro T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estoril 39 / 100
Rio Ave 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estoril Rio Ave

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Estoril Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Rio Ave conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Estoril found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Away concern: Rio Ave has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Estoril VS Rio Ave
0.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Estoril

(Home)
20 Sept
Estoril
1 : 2
Casa Pia
14 Sept
Braga
1 : 0
Estoril
07 Sept
Estoril
0 : 0
Arouca
31 Aug
Benfica
2 : 1
Estoril
22 Aug
Estoril
0 : 2
Rio Ave
Page 1 of 6

Rio Ave

(Away)
19 Sept
Alverca
1 : 0
Rio Ave
14 Sept
Rio Ave
3 : 3
Estrela da Amadora
06 Sept
Santa Clara
4 : 0
Rio Ave
28 Aug
Rio Ave
0 : 4
Sporting CP
22 Aug
Estoril
0 : 2
Rio Ave
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 18:3 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 22:7 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 17:8 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 11:4 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
6 Braga 6 3 2 1 7:5 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 9:9 11
8 Estrela da Amadora 7 2 4 1 14:14 10
9 Gil Vicente 6 2 2 2 5:5 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8:12 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8:14 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 9:7 7
14 Vitoria Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5:8 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 7:15 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 5:15 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 3:16 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 3:10 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)