Sport Picks
Estrela da Amadora vs Braga
Portugal
Liga Portugal FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo 
Match Events
5'
5'
Martinez G.
Assist: Victor P.
27'
27'
Lekovic S.
45'
45'
Stoica I.
Assist: Doue G.
AI Match Summary
The Liga Portugal game between Estrela da Amadora and Braga finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Estrela da Amadora.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Braga
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
31%
/ Low Confidence
- Braga carry the better recent record into this one.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Estrela da Amadora Clean Sheet 68%
Braga Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Estrela da Amadora | Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 32 |
| Wins | 8 | 19 |
| Draws | 10 | 10 |
| Losses | 10 | 3 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 1.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 0.78 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 10, 2026 Liga Portugal
Estrela da Amadora vs Braga
2:1
May 16, 2026 Liga Portugal
Braga vs Estrela da Amadora
2:2
Jan 3, 2026 Liga Portugal
Estrela da Amadora vs Braga
3:3
Jan 19, 2025 Liga Portugal
Estrela da Amadora vs Braga
0:1
Aug 11, 2024 Liga Portugal
Braga vs Estrela da Amadora
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Estrela da Amadora Compare
Top Goalscorer Stoica I.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Braga Compare
Top Goalscorer Martinez G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Estrela da Amadora 41 / 100
Braga 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Estrela da Amadora Braga
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Estrela da Amadora Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Estrela da Amadora found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).
Recent resilience: Estrela da Amadora stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Braga has conceded goals in 47% of their last 32 outings.
Scoring Trends
Estrela da Amadora VS Braga
2.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 38%
88% Over 2.5 25%
75% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Estrela da Amadora
(Home) 20 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
0 : 2 Academico Viseu
14 Sept
Rio Ave
3 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
10 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 1 Braga
05 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 2 Famalicao
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
0 : 2 Academico Viseu
10 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 1 Braga
05 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 2 Famalicao
08 Aug
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 2 Sporting CP
01 Aug
Estrela da Amadora
4 : 2 Al Nassr
Page 1 of 4
Braga
(Away) 20 Sept
Santa Clara
0 : 0 Braga
14 Sept
Braga
1 : 0 Estoril
10 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 1 Braga
05 Sept
Alverca
1 : 2 Braga
31 Aug
Braga
1 : 0 Vitoria Guimaraes
Page 1 of 7
20 Sept
Santa Clara
0 : 0 Braga
10 Sept
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 1 Braga
05 Sept
Alverca
1 : 2 Braga
27 Aug
Austria Vienna
0 : 0 Braga
13 Aug
Din. Minsk
0 : 0 Braga
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17:8 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 | Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela da Amadora | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 8 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:14 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 14 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2027/2028 (Main)
