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Estrela do Norte vs Doze Futebol Clube

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Capixaba 2016
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Estrela do Norte play Doze Futebol Clube in the Campeonato Capixaba 2016. It looks like a close match. Recently, Estrela do Norte averaged 1 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. Doze Futebol Clube averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. In past meetings, Estrela do Norte won 1, Doze Futebol Clube won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 3, 2016 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.67 for Estrela do Norte and 1.06 for Doze Futebol Clube. This points to a Doze Futebol Clube double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Estrela do Norte
20%
Draws
44%
Doze Futebol Clube
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Doze Futebol Clube

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Estrela do Norte picked up more points recently compared to Doze Futebol Clube.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.67 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Estrela do Norte Clean Sheet 22%
Doze Futebol Clube Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estrela do Norte Doze Futebol Clube
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 5 7
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 1 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.52

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 3, 2016 Capixaba
Estrela do Norte vs Doze Futebol Clube
0:1
Mar 31, 2016 Capixaba
Doze Futebol Clube vs Estrela do Norte
2:1
Mar 2, 2016 Capixaba
Estrela do Norte vs Doze Futebol Clube
0:0
Feb 4, 2016 Capixaba
Doze Futebol Clube vs Estrela do Norte
0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrela do Norte 37 / 100
Doze Futebol Clube 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estrela do Norte Doze Futebol Clube

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Doze Futebol Clube or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Estrela do Norte attacking → ← attacking Doze Futebol Clube

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrela do Norte scored in 61% of their last 33 games.

Doze Futebol Clube let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Estrela do Norte went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Doze Futebol Clube lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 37
0.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Rio Branco ES852110:517
2Real Noroeste84317:415
3Linhares Futebol Clube84047:812
4SAO Mateus82155:87
5Sport-ES81255:95
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Desportiva Ferroviaria853010:318
2Galatas83326:212
3CA Itapemirim82425:410
4Estrela do Norte82244:78
5Doze Futebol Clube81251:105