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Estrela do Norte vs Rio Branco ES Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Sub
de Lima Araujo D. In: Renato Matos
Out: de Lima Araujo D.
63'
Osvaldir
65'
Sub
Carlos Vitor In: Edinho
Out: Carlos Vitor

AI Match Summary

The Capixaba 2024 game between Estrela do Norte and Rio Branco ES finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Rio Branco ES.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Estrela do Norte
15%
Draws
34%
Rio Branco ES
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Estrela do Norte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Estrela do Norte carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Estrela do Norte taking it.
  • Regular Capixaba 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Rio Branco ES have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Estrela do Norte Clean Sheet 68%
Rio Branco ES Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estrela do Norte Rio Branco ES
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 11
Draws 5 9
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.57 1.23
Goals Conceded 0.7 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2024 Capixaba
Estrela do Norte vs Rio Branco ES
0:1
Jan 31, 2023 Capixaba
Rio Branco ES vs Estrela do Norte
2:1
Jan 30, 2022 Capixaba
Rio Branco ES vs Estrela do Norte
0:2
May 1, 2021 Capixaba
Estrela do Norte vs Rio Branco ES
0:1
Feb 15, 2020 Capixaba
Rio Branco ES vs Estrela do Norte
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estrela do Norte Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Rio Branco ES Compare

Top Goalscorer Edinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrela do Norte 95 / 100
Rio Branco ES 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estrela do Norte Rio Branco ES

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Estrela do Norte Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrela do Norte went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Estrela do Norte scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Rio Branco ES's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Estrela do Norte VS Rio Branco ES
2.63 Goals Scored 1.63
0.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Estrela do Norte

(Home)
19 Sept
Estrela do Norte
2 : 1
Linhares Futebol Clube
12 Sept
Estrela do Norte
3 : 0
Audax Sao Mateus
06 Sept
Audax Sao Mateus
1 : 2
Estrela do Norte
29 Aug
Sport-ES
0 : 1
Estrela do Norte
22 Aug
Estrela do Norte
4 : 0
Tupy
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Rio Branco ES

(Away)
27 Jun
Uberlandia
2 : 2
Rio Branco ES
21 Jun
Rio Branco ES
0 : 2
Uberlandia
14 Jun
Rio Branco ES
4 : 0
Porto-BA
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
03 Jun
Audax Sao Mateus
0 : 4
Rio Branco ES
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rio Branco ES 9 6 1 2 13:5 19
2 Real Noroeste 9 5 3 1 17:9 18
3 Desportiva Ferroviaria 9 4 4 1 13:11 16
4 Porto Vitoria 9 4 3 2 9:8 15
5 Jaguare 9 3 5 1 8:8 14
6 Rio Branco-VN 9 2 4 3 8:9 10
7 Vitoria ES 9 2 3 4 11:11 9
8 Nova Venecia 9 1 5 3 7:12 8
9 Serra 9 1 2 6 11:16 5
10 Estrela do Norte 9 0 4 5 2:10 4
Promotion - Capixaba 2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Capixaba 2 2025 (Main)