Sport Picks

Mozambique

Mocambola 2016

Ferroviario Nampula

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Estrela Vermelha Maputo play Ferroviario Nampula in the Mocambola 2016. It looks like a close match. Recently, Estrela Vermelha Maputo averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Ferroviario Nampula averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. In past meetings, Estrela Vermelha Maputo won 1, Ferroviario Nampula won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Aug 21, 2016 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Estrela Vermelha Maputo and 0.99 for Ferroviario Nampula. This points to a Ferroviario Nampula double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%

Estrela Vermelha Maputo

35%

Draws

37%

Ferroviario Nampula

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ferroviario Nampula

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Estrela Vermelha Maputo picked up more points recently compared to Ferroviario Nampula.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 0.99 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 67%

Over 2.5 Goals 45%

Over 3.5 Goals 27%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

Estrela Vermelha Maputo Clean Sheet 23%

Ferroviario Nampula Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 60%

Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Estrela Vermelha Maputo	Ferroviario Nampula
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	6	10
Draws	12	9
Losses	12	10
Goals Scored	0.93	1.1
Goals Conceded	1.2	1.34

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2016 Mocambola

Estrela Vermelha Maputo vs Ferroviario Nampula

Possession: 50% - 42% Cards: 2 - 1

1:2

Apr 24, 2016 Mocambola

Ferroviario Nampula vs Estrela Vermelha Maputo

Possession: 42% - 49% Cards: 4 - 2

1:2

Jul 13, 2014 Mocambola

Estrela Vermelha Maputo vs Ferroviario Nampula

Possession: 59% - 55% Cards: 4 - 3

0:0

Mar 23, 2014 Mocambola

Ferroviario Nampula vs Estrela Vermelha Maputo

Possession: 52% - 45% Cards: 1 - 4

2:1

Aug 18, 2013 Mocambola

Estrela Vermelha Maputo vs Ferroviario Nampula

Possession: 45% - 48% Cards: 1 - 3

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrela Vermelha Maputo 30 / 100

Ferroviario Nampula 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Estrela Vermelha Maputo Ferroviario Nampula

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ferroviario Nampula or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +40%

5.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.2%

2.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Estrela Vermelha Maputo attacking → ← attacking Ferroviario Nampula

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrela Vermelha Maputo scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Ferroviario Nampula let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Estrela Vermelha Maputo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Ferroviario Nampula lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 39

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ferroviario Beira	30	18	7	5	40:21	61
2	UD Songo	30	16	7	7	32:14	55
3	Chibuto	30	13	11	6	35:19	50
4	Liga Desportivo Maputo	30	15	5	10	37:21	50
5	Ferroviario Nampula	30	13	11	6	37:21	50
6	Ferroviario Maputo	30	13	10	7	27:18	49
7	Maxaquene	30	11	10	9	28:26	43
8	Ferroviario Nacala	30	10	12	8	22:24	42
9	Desportivo de Nacala	30	10	10	10	39:34	40
10	Costa do Sol	30	10	8	12	34:33	38
11	ENH Vilankulo	30	9	10	11	22:28	37
12	Chingale de Tete	30	9	6	15	19:41	33
13	1º de Maio de Quelimane	30	7	11	12	30:36	32
14	Estrela Vermelha Maputo	30	6	12	12	28:36	30
15	Desportivo Maputo	30	2	13	15	15:34	19
16	Desportivo de Niassa	30	3	7	20	11:50	16