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Estrella de Berisso vs Atletico Pilar

Argentina Argentina

Torneo Promocional Amateur 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Estrella de Berisso play Atletico Pilar in the Torneo Promocional Amateur 2025. Estrella de Berisso are favorites here. Recently, Estrella de Berisso averaged 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. Atletico Pilar averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.82 conceded. In past meetings, Estrella de Berisso won 4, Atletico Pilar won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 5, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Estrella de Berisso and 0.94 for Atletico Pilar. This points to a Estrella de Berisso double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Estrella de Berisso
18%
Draws
23%
Atletico Pilar
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Estrella de Berisso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence
  • Estrella de Berisso picked up more points recently compared to Atletico Pilar.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 0.94 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Estrella de Berisso Clean Sheet 24%
Atletico Pilar Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estrella de Berisso Atletico Pilar
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 4
Draws 9 5
Losses 11 19
Goals Scored 0.89 0.82
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 5, 2026 Torneo Promocional Amateur
Estrella de Berisso vs Atletico Pilar
1:0
Sep 15, 2025 Torneo Promocional Amateur
Atletico Pilar vs Estrella de Berisso
2:0
Aug 23, 2025 Torneo Promocional Amateur
Estrella de Berisso vs Atletico Pilar
1:0
Aug 4, 2024 Torneo Promocional Amateur
Atletico Pilar vs Estrella de Berisso
2:3
Mar 10, 2024 Torneo Promocional Amateur
Estrella de Berisso vs Atletico Pilar
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estrella de Berisso Compare

Top Goalscorer Nuccetelli R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Atletico Pilar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estrella de Berisso 58 / 100
Atletico Pilar 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estrella de Berisso Atletico Pilar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Estrella de Berisso Win (1)
Secondary Pick Estrella de Berisso & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.6%
1.96
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.2%
3.03
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Estrella de Berisso attacking → ← attacking Atletico Pilar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estrella de Berisso scored in 54% of their last 28 games.

Atletico Pilar let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Estrella de Berisso went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Atletico Pilar lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 17
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ezeiza1062216:520
2Social Atletico Television1062213:720
3Defensores de Glew1052323:1217
4Belgrano Zarate102627:1112
5Estrella de Berisso102177:167
6Atletico Pilar101364:196
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Deportivo Metalurgico1062214:420
2Barrancas1053211:1218
3Nautico Hacoaj1052317:617
4Everton La Plata1032511:1011
5Provincial102357:209
6Juventud de Bernal102269:178