Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Estudiantes Merida vs Portuguesa

Venezuela Venezuela

Liga FUTVE Estadio Metropolitano de Mérida, Mérida
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Rojas T.
32' Event
Moreno J.
(Penalty)
41'
Trujillo A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga FUTVE game between Estudiantes Merida and Portuguesa finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Estudiantes Merida.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Estudiantes Merida
35%
Draws
32%
Portuguesa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Portuguesa's 1.33 goals per match outpaces what Estudiantes Merida have produced (1.13).
  • Win probability leans Estudiantes Merida's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Estudiantes Merida Clean Sheet 20%
Portuguesa Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Estudiantes Merida Portuguesa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 11
Draws 5 12
Losses 14 7
Goals Scored 1.13 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Liga FUTVE
Portuguesa vs Estudiantes Merida
2:1
Apr 5, 2026 Liga FUTVE
Estudiantes Merida vs Portuguesa
2:1
Sep 20, 2025 Liga FUTVE
Estudiantes Merida vs Portuguesa
2:0
Aug 6, 2025 Copa Venezuela
Portuguesa vs Estudiantes Merida
1:0
Jul 29, 2025 Copa Venezuela
Estudiantes Merida vs Portuguesa
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Estudiantes Merida Compare

Top Goalscorer Montes G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Quejada K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Portuguesa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Estudiantes Merida 42 / 100
Portuguesa 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Estudiantes Merida Portuguesa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estudiantes Merida's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Portuguesa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Estudiantes Merida stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Estudiantes Merida VS Portuguesa
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Estudiantes Merida

(Home)
16 Sept
Portuguesa
2 : 1
Estudiantes Merida
12 Sept
Estudiantes Merida
2 : 0
Dep. Tachira
07 Sept
Carabobo
1 : 0
Estudiantes Merida
03 Sept
Estudiantes Merida
1 : 1
Universidad Central
30 Aug
Deportivo La Guaira
1 : 2
Estudiantes Merida
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Portuguesa

(Away)
16 Sept
Portuguesa
2 : 1
Estudiantes Merida
13 Sept
Rayo Zuliano
1 : 1
Portuguesa
05 Sept
Portuguesa
1 : 1
Zamora
02 Sept
Caracas
1 : 1
Portuguesa
30 Aug
Portuguesa
2 : 2
Metropolitanos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportivo La Guaira 13 7 6 0 15:6 27
2 Metropolitanos 13 7 4 2 17:10 25
3 Dep. Tachira 13 7 3 3 17:12 24
4 Universidad Central 13 7 2 4 24:20 23
5 Portuguesa 13 5 5 3 20:12 20
6 Estudiantes Merida 13 6 2 5 21:18 20
7 Carabobo 13 4 7 2 23:14 19
8 Academia Puerto Cabello 13 4 5 4 16:14 17
9 Zamora 13 4 5 4 14:14 17
10 Caracas 13 3 6 4 15:17 15
11 Rayo Zuliano 13 4 2 7 13:23 14
12 Monagas 13 3 2 8 14:22 11
13 Academia Anzoategui 13 2 3 8 15:25 9
14 Trujillanos 13 0 4 9 9:26 4
Promotion - Liga FUTVE (Apertura - Quadrangular)