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Ethiopia U17 vs Mozambique U17 Prediction & H2H Stats

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations U17 Mohammed VI Football Academy (pitch 8), Salé
Sat, May 23, 2026
1 - 2
04:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Misbah A.
Assist: Shafi H.
56' Event
Pelembe D.
57'
Sub
Abrha B. In: Akmel K.
Out: Abrha B.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Ethiopia U17
20%
Draws
51%
Mozambique U17
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mozambique U17

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ethiopia U17 come out ahead of Mozambique U17 on wins alone.
  • 29% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Ethiopia U17 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Mozambique U17, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Ethiopia U17 Clean Sheet 19%
Mozambique U17 Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ethiopia U17 Mozambique U17
Matches Played 16 17
Wins 6 4
Draws 3 3
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.25 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations U17
Ethiopia U17 vs Mozambique U17
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ethiopia U17 Compare

Top Goalscorer Misbah A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Mozambique U17 Compare

Top Goalscorer Pelembe D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ethiopia U17 31 / 100
Mozambique U17 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ethiopia U17 Mozambique U17

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ethiopia U17 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mozambique U17 has conceded goals in 94% of their last 17 outings.

Ethiopia U17 scored in 69% of their last 16 games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Ethiopia U17 remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ethiopia U17 VS Mozambique U17
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ethiopia U17

(Home)
23 May
Ethiopia U17
1 : 2
Mozambique U17
19 May
Tunisia U17
0 : 1
Ethiopia U17
16 May
Ethiopia U17
1 : 2
Morocco U17
13 May
Egypt U17
0 : 0
Ethiopia U17
02 Oct
Ethiopia U17
1 : 2
Mali U17
Page 1 of 4

Mozambique U17

(Away)
23 May
Ethiopia U17
1 : 2
Mozambique U17
20 May
Angola U17
1 : 2
Mozambique U17
17 May
Mozambique U17
1 : 1
Mali U17
14 May
Tanzania U17
3 : 0
Mozambique U17
20 Aug
Mozambique U17
0 : 3
Comoros U17
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Ethiopia U17 1
Mozambique U17 2
Uganda U17 3
Ghana U17 2