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Etoile-Carouge vs Vaduz

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League 2025/2026 Stade de la Fontenette, Carouge
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Schwizer D.
Assist: Beyer B.
13'
Hasler N.
14' Event
Itaitinga
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Vaduz in this Challenge League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vaduz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Etoile-Carouge
15%
Draws
39%
Vaduz
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Etoile-Carouge

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Medium Confidence
  • Etoile-Carouge haven't matched Vaduz's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Etoile-Carouge's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Etoile-Carouge Clean Sheet 20%
Vaduz Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Etoile-Carouge Vaduz
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 19
Draws 7 3
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 0.75 1.75
Goals Conceded 2 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Vaduz
1:2
Feb 6, 2026 Challenge League
Vaduz vs Etoile-Carouge
3:3
Oct 26, 2025 Challenge League
Vaduz vs Etoile-Carouge
3:1
Aug 3, 2025 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Vaduz
1:1
Apr 27, 2025 Challenge League
Vaduz vs Etoile-Carouge
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Etoile-Carouge Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Vaduz Compare

Top Goalscorer Schwizer D.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Etoile-Carouge 42 / 100
Vaduz 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Etoile-Carouge Vaduz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Etoile-Carouge scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Vaduz conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Etoile-Carouge has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Etoile-Carouge VS Vaduz
0.75 Goals Scored 1.75
2 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Etoile-Carouge

(Home)
31 Jul
Yverdon
1 : 1
Etoile-Carouge
24 Jul
Etoile-Carouge
3 : 0
Aarau
18 Jul
Young Boys
5 : 0
Etoile-Carouge
11 Jul
Servette
1 : 2
Etoile-Carouge
04 Jul
Lausanne
1 : 0
Etoile-Carouge
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Vaduz

(Away)
06 Aug
Inter Turku
2 : 1
Vaduz
02 Aug
Vaduz
2 : 3
St. Gallen
30 Jul
Atletic Escaldes
0 : 2
Vaduz
26 Jul
Lugano
2 : 1
Vaduz
23 Jul
Vaduz
4 : 0
Atletic Escaldes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vaduz 36 25 6 5 75:41 81
2 Aarau 36 25 5 6 77:47 80
3 Yverdon 36 20 7 9 75:48 67
4 Lausanne Ouchy 36 14 8 14 59:51 50
5 Xamax 36 14 7 15 55:56 49
6 Rapperswil-Jona 36 14 2 20 52:62 44
7 Etoile-Carouge 36 10 10 16 46:54 40
8 Wil 36 10 10 16 39:55 40
9 Stade Nyonnais 36 5 13 18 33:60 28
10 Bellinzona 36 5 8 23 40:77 23
Promotion - Super League (Main)
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Promotion League (Main)