Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Etoile-Carouge vs Wil

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League 2025/2026 Stade de la Fontenette, Carouge
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Caslei B.
15'
Sub
Rufli V. In: Neves D.
Out: Rufli V.
19' Event
Correia O.

AI Match Summary

Etoile-Carouge in this Challenge League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Etoile-Carouge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Etoile-Carouge
35%
Draws
39%
Wil
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Wil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Wil average 1.58 goals a game right now, well clear of Etoile-Carouge's 1.27.
  • Model gives Wil a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Challenge League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Etoile-Carouge Clean Sheet 23%
Wil Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Etoile-Carouge Wil
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 10
Draws 8 9
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.27 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Wil
1:1
Apr 17, 2026 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Wil
2:0
Mar 22, 2026 Challenge League
Wil vs Etoile-Carouge
1:3
Dec 5, 2025 Challenge League
Etoile-Carouge vs Wil
0:0
Aug 8, 2025 Challenge League
Wil vs Etoile-Carouge
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Etoile-Carouge Compare

Top Goalscorer Caslei B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Correia O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Wil Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Etoile-Carouge 29 / 100
Wil 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Etoile-Carouge Wil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Wil Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Etoile-Carouge found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Wil let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Etoile-Carouge went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Etoile-Carouge VS Wil
1 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Etoile-Carouge

(Home)
18 Sept
Kriens
4 : 1
Etoile-Carouge
11 Sept
Etoile-Carouge
0 : 1
Winterthur
04 Sept
Etoile-Carouge
1 : 1
Wil
01 Sept
Lausanne Ouchy
3 : 0
Etoile-Carouge
28 Aug
Etoile-Carouge
2 : 1
Rapperswil-Jona
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Wil

(Away)
18 Sept
Wil
5 : 0
Stade Nyonnais
11 Sept
Lausanne Ouchy
4 : 0
Wil
04 Sept
Etoile-Carouge
1 : 1
Wil
31 Aug
Wil
2 : 2
Aarau
28 Aug
Yverdon
1 : 1
Wil
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vaduz 36 25 6 5 75:41 81
2 Aarau 36 25 5 6 77:47 80
3 Yverdon 36 20 7 9 75:48 67
4 Lausanne Ouchy 36 14 8 14 59:51 50
5 Xamax 36 14 7 15 55:56 49
6 Rapperswil-Jona 36 14 2 20 52:62 44
7 Etoile-Carouge 36 10 10 16 46:54 40
8 Wil 36 10 10 16 39:55 40
9 Stade Nyonnais 36 5 13 18 33:60 28
10 Bellinzona 36 5 8 23 40:77 23
Promotion - Super League (Main)
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Promotion League (Main)